Grazie Maurizio, davvero molto interessante e utile.
Giulio

Il giorno sab 25 apr 2026 alle 02:20 Alfredo Bregni via nexa <
[email protected]> ha scritto:

> It's a long, slightly boring story (I did not make to reach the end),
> which reminds me the Vietnam times and the evergreen concept of
> "imperialism".
> Is there anything *really new *to say about USA...?
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> *From:* Maurizio Borghi via nexa <[email protected]>
> *To:* Nexa <[email protected]>
> *Sent:* Friday, April 24, 2026 1:30 PM
> *Subject:* [nexa] There is no AI race
>
> There is no AI race
> <https://substack.com/@arnaudbertrand>
> Arnaud Bertrand <https://substack.com/@arnaudbertrand>
> Substack - Apr 24, 2026 ∙ Paid
>
>
> https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/there-is-no-ai-race?r=y77av&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
>
> The Chinese have this great principle: “Seek truth from facts” (实事求是).
> It’s commonly associated with the Communist Party - because it’s indeed a
> key slogan of theirs - but, as is often the case in China, it’s just a
> modern usage of a much older idiom, first recorded in the Book of Han
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_of_Han> (111 CE).
>
> What does it mean? Essentially, it’s an anti-ideology principle: rather
> than starting with a doctrine and looking at facts through its lens, you
> should go the other way round - “truth” is extracted from the world as it
> is. It’s basically an ode to empirical pragmatism.
>
> “Seeking truth from facts” is precisely what’s missing in the conversation
> on AI, which is stunningly doctrinal and ideological: apocalyptic doomers
> on one end, deluded techno-utopians on the other, all of it made worse by
> the great-power framing of the so-called “AI race.” Everyone is starting
> with the conclusion - be it “China bad, so they must lose the AI race,” or
> “AGI will kill us all,” or “AGI will herald a new era of abundance” - and
> working backwards to find facts that fit.
>
> It’s interesting to contrast this with the early days of the internet,
> which I’m sadly old enough to have witnessed as a late teenager and young
> adult. There was also, at the time, some ideological dimensions and a lot
> of naivety - we were definitely not “seeking truth from facts” either - but
> the mood was fundamentally optimistic, universalist, and free-spirited.
> These were doctrinal beliefs in the sense that nobody had actually checked
> whether any of it was true, but it was a shared doctrine. Everyone globally
> held roughly the same one, so there was no ideological battle to be had.
>
> For instance it’s pretty comical to look back at Bill Clinton’s famous
> 2000 assertion that the internet would inevitably liberalize China and that
> the government’s efforts to control it was "like trying to nail jello to
> the wall
> <https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/Full_Text_of_Clintons_Speech_on_China_Trade_Bi.htm>"
> - arguing that it was “an argument for accelerating the effort to bring
> China into the world.”
>
> Compare and contrast this with the current AI framing about China: today
> not only is there no talk of “bringing China in” - the entire policy
> architecture, from export controls to chip bans, is explicitly designed to
> keep China out. Nor is anybody expecting that AI will liberalize anyone: on
> the contrary, each side is convinced the other will use it to further their
> power with malign intent, surveil its population, and ultimately dominate
> the world.
>
> And, to be fair, the Chinese side is right to be convinced about this
> because that’s literally what the U.S. side is saying they’ll use AI for,
> which is also a complete contrast with the early internet discourse.
>
> Back then, the early web was largely built by kids in dorm rooms and
> garages who saw themselves as contributing to a global commons. Today the
> people building AI in the U.S. - a handful of labs working hand-in-glove
> with the national security state - are explicitly framing their work as an
> instrument of U.S. dominance.
>
> Take Palantir’s recent manifesto, which they published on X
> <https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2045574398573453312?s=20>: it has zero
> pretense of building for the world, instead arguing that the “engineering
> elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the
> defense of the nation,” that Western civilization must “prevail,” that hard
> power in this century "will be built on software" and “A.I. weapons,” and
> that coexistence with others is, implicitly off the table
> <https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2045767857997484359?s=20>.
>
> And, just in case anyone hadn’t gotten the message, they recently changed
> their tagline to “Software that dominates
> <https://www.wired.com/story/palantir-what-the-company-does/>.”
>
> Looking back, it should have been obvious that a company that named itself
> after the palantíri - the seeing-stones that Sauron, Tolkien’s
> representation of absolute evil, used to corrupt and dominate the peoples
> of Middle-earth - was probably not going to be building tools for human
> flourishing…
>
> And it’s not just Palantir: it's pretty much the official position of the
> entire frontier U.S. lab ecosystem.
>
> As another illustration, take Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic (the
> company behind Claude AI), who argues for an “entente strategy”
> <https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace> in which the
> West should use AI to achieve “robust military superiority (the stick)
> while at the same time offering to distribute the benefits of powerful AI
> (the carrot) to a wider and wider group of countries in exchange for
> supporting the coalition’s strategy to promote democracy.”
>
> In essence, Amodei views AI as both a tool of military dominance and a
> tool of blackmail to force countries to align themselves with the West
> politically. Not exactly the open, universalist spirit of the early web,
> and a position virtually indistinguishable from that of Palantir.
>
> If one adopts a “seek truth from facts” approach to Anthropic, the reality
> of that company is a - very - stark contrast to their public image.
>
> Back in February, there was a huge media story around Anthropic refusing
> the Pentagon's demand that Claude be made available for mass domestic
> surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, and the subsequent (seeming)
> power struggle between the company and Pete Hegseth.
>
> The story, as told by virtually every mainstream outlet, was unambiguous:
> here was a responsible AI lab that had drawn an ethical line in the sand,
> "trying to do their best to help us from ourselves" as a Republican
> Senator put it
> <https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/anthropic-cannot-in-good-conscience-accede-to-pentagons-demands-ceo-says>.
> The National Catholic Register even reported
> <https://www.ncregister.com/news/judge-sides-with-anthropic-2026-03-30-0cz4n7a6>
> that a group of 14 Catholic moral theologians and ethicists had filed an
> amicus brief in the case, stating that “the teaching of the Catholic Church
> supports Anthropic’s decision”.
>
> What no-one spent too much time mentioning was the reason why the Pentagon
> was negotiating these terms with Anthropic in the first place: it stemmed
> from the fact that in January 2026, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth had
> issued a memorandum
> <https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/12/2003855671/-1/-1/0/ARTIFICIAL-INTELLIGENCE-STRATEGY-FOR-THE-DEPARTMENT-OF-WAR.PDF>
> aimed at “accelerating America's military AI dominance” that directed all
> Pentagon AI contracts to incorporate "any lawful use" language within 180
> days - basically allowing the Pentagon to use AI for any purpose the
> Department considered lawful.
>
> Why did this matter for Anthropic specifically? Because Anthropic had
> spent the previous year and a half aggressively working to become the
> Pentagon's most deeply integrated frontier AI lab - and, at the time, its
> only one. In November 2024 they partnered
> <https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/anthropic-palantir-amazon-claude-defense-ai>
> with - of all companies - Palantir “to make Anthropic's models available to
> U.S. intelligence and defense agencies.” In June 2025, they launched
> Claude Gov
> <https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-gov-models-for-u-s-national-security-customers>
> - a dedicated product line custom-built for U.S. national security
> customers, already being deployed by agencies at the highest classification
> levels. A month later, in July 2025, they won a $200 million Pentagon
> contract
> <https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-and-the-department-of-defense-to-advance-responsible-ai-in-defense-operations>.
> No other AI lab was remotely as deep as they were in the U.S. military and
> defense apparatus.
>
> This all means that, contrary to the "principled holdout" story the media
> ran with, Hegseth's memo didn't pull Anthropic into the war machine. It
> affected them because they were already fully embedded in it, more than any
> other player.
>
> Notably, Anthropic’s Claude was used by the Pentagon to capture Maduro, as
> reported by the WSJ
> <https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-used-anthropics-claude-in-maduro-venezuela-raid-583aff17>:
> a story that came out less than 2 weeks before the whole media frenzy about
> this supposed “clash” between Anthropic and the Pentagon over AI ethics.
> Which really makes you wonder whether the "clash" was a genuine ethical
> dispute at all, or a PR operation designed to distract from the fact that
> Anthropic's AI had just been used by the U.S. military to illegally capture
> a foreign head of state…
>
> It’s also interesting to look at what the “clash” was about. What
> Anthropic said they refused was the use of their AI for “*mass* *domestic*
> surveillance” (emphasis on both *mass* and *domestic*) and “*fully
> autonomous* weapons” (emphasis on both *fully* and *autonomous*). That is 
> their
> exact wording <https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war>
> .
>
> Which means, concretely, that AI surveillance is fine domestically as long
> as it’s not “mass.” It also means, critically, that mass AI surveillance is
> fine as long as it’s not domestic.
>
> So the rest of the world is on notice: Anthropic has absolutely no problem
> with the U.S. military-industrial complex using their AI to surveil all 8
> billion inhabitants on Earth, provided it excludes the 340 million
> Americans. And even the latter *can* be surveilled, just not in a “mass”
> way (whatever that means).
>
> This, incidentally, is actually merely a restatement of U.S. law. Mass
> domestic surveillance of Americans is prohibited anyhow by the Fourth
> Amendment, and mass foreign surveillance is authorized under FISA Section
> 702 and Executive Order 12333 - the legal architecture Edward Snowden
> exposed in 2013.
>
> So Anthropic’s so-called “principled holdout” stance is them simply
> restating the current US legal status-quo, rebranding it as a “red line,”
> and being congratulated for “following the teaching of the Catholic Church”
> by theologians for it. Even though that very same legal architecture
> they’re defending, back when the Snowden revelations broke in 2013, was
> rightly condemned as the most sweeping surveillance regime in the world
> (which it factually is).
>
> In effect, when one “seeks truth from facts,” Anthropic realized the
> pretty impressive PR feat of getting applauded - even getting virtually
> sainted by Catholic theologians - for making the U.S. sweeping surveillance
> apparatus more grimly powerful with frontier AI. In Tolkien’s terms:
> sharpening the eye of Sauron.
>
> You have to hand it to them: impressive branding work, their PR folks
> definitely deserve a raise over that one.
>
> Same story with the “*fully autonomous* weapons” aspect of their “ethical
> stance.”
>
> First of all, what this concretely means is that if there was a situation
> where the Pentagon decided to commit a Gaza-like genocide with AI, asking
> it - hypothetically - to select targets, optimize timing, and execute the
> operation, Anthropic’s red line would be fully honored provided Pete
> Hegseth personally clicked the final “go.” That’s the “ethical” principle
> at play here: not *whether* Claude helps plan awful deeds, only *whether
> a human is in the loop when it happens*.
>
> And it goes further than this actually: in their statement on this matter
> <https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war> Anthropic
> specified that they don't even object to fully autonomous weapons as a
> category. They specifically write that such weapons "may prove critical for
> our national defense." Their only objection is that today's AI isn't
> reliable enough yet. And they helpfully offer “to work directly with the
> Department of War on R&D to improve the reliability of these systems.”
>
> In other words: Anthropic isn’t at all refusing to help build autonomous
> killing machines. They just want them to be good before they’re deployed:
> it’s an objection over the quality of the killing, not ethics.
>
> Again, what an extraordinary PR feat: getting Catholic theologians to
> bless what is functionally a pitch for accurate autonomous killing machines.
>
> And while Anthropic makes for a particularly instructive case study -
> given their near-saintly public image - they're really just one example
> among many. I could have equally picked on OpenAI, who quietly deleted
> <https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/16/openai-quietly-removes-ban-on-military-use-of-its-ai-tools.html>
> the prohibition on military use from their policies in January 2024 and
> then partnered with Anduril
> <https://www.anduril.com/news/anduril-partners-with-openai-to-advance-u-s-artificial-intelligence-leadership-and-protect-u-s>
> to build AI for battlefield systems, with Sam Altman writing Washington
> Post op-eds
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/25/sam-altman-ai-democracy-authoritarianism-future/>
> about the need for “democratic AI” to prevail over “authoritarian AI” - a
> framing indistinguishable from Amodei's or Palantir's, and laughable on its
> face when you consider that this so-called “democratic AI” is built for the
> global domination of others (the very opposite of democracy) and explicitly
> set up, as we just saw, for mass surveillance and autonomous killings. Or
> Google, which in February 2025 abandoned its long-standing pledge
> <https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/google-removes-pledge-to-not-use-ai-for-weapons-surveillance.html>
> not to develop AI for weapons or surveillance. Or Meta, which opened
> Llama up for U.S. national security use
> <https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/05/meta-allows-national-security-defense-contractors-use-llama-ai>
> in November 2024.
>
> This isn't a few bad apples, it’s virtually the entire ecosystem.
>
> So taking a step back, that's what you have on one side of the ledger: a
> U.S. obviously dead set on using AI not as a global commons but as a tool
> of submission and dominance for the United States.
>
> Now, smart readers (which is, of course, all of you) will think they know
> how the rest of this article is going to go: “he’ll present the other side
> of the ledger - i.e. China - with its open source models, say that’s the
> way to go, that we all ought to cheer for the camp that does in fact value
> some form of openness and universalism, bla bla bla”.
>
> Well… at the risk of disappointing you, I’m actually not going to do that,
> because a) I like to surprise, and b) that’d be wrong.
>
> The point is that, if we do indeed believe that AI ought to be a global
> commons, if we do believe in “seeking truth from facts” as opposed to
> ideology, by definition there shouldn’t be sides of a ledger in the first
> place: defaulting to “team China” is just the other side of the same
> mistake we've spent this whole article documenting. The framing itself - AI
> as a contest between civilizations, a race to be won - is the pathology.
> You can't seek truth from facts while still holding on to the premise that
> there must be a “winner”.
>
> Think back to, say, electricity: would it have been right to frame its
> development as a race to be won by one civilization over another? To cheer
> for whichever country happened to be ahead on transformers in 1890? To make
> electricity a matter of national allegiance, something you rooted for the
> way you’d root for a football team? It sounds absurd because it is absurd.
> Electricity was a general-purpose technology destined to become part of the
> shared operating system of human life, and the only sensible stance toward
> it was to want it developed well and diffused widely for everyone’s
> benefit, full stop.
>
> Sure, it’s absolutely true that China today has an infinitely better
> posture towards AI than the U.S. does. Case in point, just as I was in the
> process of writing this article Deepseek V4 was released
> <https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro>, and it's hard to
> imagine a more perfect illustration of the contrast.
>
> V4 is open-source under an MIT license, meaning anyone anywhere can
> download the weights, modify them, run them on whatever hardware they
> choose. It's competitive with GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7 on most AI
> benchmarks, and priced at a small fraction - or even “free” if you choose
> to download it and run it yourself. But the single most striking thing
> about V4 isn't the benchmarks or even the price. It's that V4 has zero
> dependency on Nvidia’s CUDA anywhere in its stack - it runs entirely on
> Huawei Ascend chips via Huawei's own CANN framework. In other words: China
> now not only has its own frontier AI models, it has its own domestic AI
> stack, top to bottom. And it's giving the whole thing away to the world -
> the exact opposite of the “hoard and dominate” posture of the U.S. labs.
>
> This is China seeing AI as a general-purpose technology built into the
> economy, shared across borders, and iterated on openly. And in fact one of
> the DeepSeek researchers wrote this on X
> <https://x.com/victor207755822/status/2047518146689732858?s=20> with the
> release of V4: “we stay true to long-termism and open source for all. AGI
> belongs to everyone.”
>
> When you cheer for this, you’re not cheering for the “China side” to win,
> you’re cheering for the principle that there shouldn’t be any side: that
> this technology - perhaps the most consequential general-purpose technology
> humanity has ever developed - should belong to everyone, should be built in
> the open, should be allowed to diffuse the way electricity or the internal
> combustion engine or antibiotics diffused, imperfectly but broadly, across
> the whole of human civilization.
>
> Let’s go back to electricity and look at what the world would have been
> like had a country decided to take towards it the approach that the U.S. is
> currently taking towards AI: imagine if, say, the United States in 1890 had
> declared electricity a matter of national security, classified the designs
> of Edison’s dynamos and Tesla’s induction motors as export-controlled,
> integrated its electrical companies directly into the War Department,
> framed the generator as a strategic weapon rather than a general-purpose
> technology, and spent the following century building its foreign policy
> around ensuring that only it, and politically-aligned nations, had access
> to the light bulb.
>
> Batshit insane, right? Well that’s EXACTLY the posture it’s taking towards
> AI.
>
> Had that happened, it’s painfully obvious we’d ALL have been immeasurably
> poorer for it, materially and morally. And the United States first and
> foremost, given that for electricity - as will undoubtedly be the case for
> AI - the real value didn’t lie in control of the technology but in its
> widespread diffusion and in what you built on top of it. Think about the
> U.S.’s “electricity giants”: companies like GE, Whirlpool or RCA didn’t get
> rich by “owning” electricity - they got rich by *selling what electricity
> made possible* into a world that was electrifying as fast as it could.
> The U.S.’s electrical fortune was built on the world electrifying alongside
> it, not against it.
>
> Does the analogy hold for AI? Yes, surprisingly well. I like Jensen
> Huang’s (Nvidia’s CEO) recent description of AI
> <https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jensen-huang> as a “5-layer cake” made of 1)
> energy, 2) chips, 3) infrastructure, 4) models and lastly 5) applications.
>
> The implication of his point is that each layer save for the last one -
> the application layer - will ultimately be largely commoditized, and as
> such that’s where the real value lies: in the millions of specific
> products, services, and industrial processes that get built on top of the
> other 4 layers.
>
> It’s typical network building: the layers underneath eventually become
> utilities, and utilities are low-margin commodity businesses. It happened
> with electricity, it happened with phones, it happened with railroads, it
> happened with the internet itself. The operators of each layer got
> commoditized over time, while the durable, century-defining fortunes
> accrued at the top of the stack: GE on top of electricity, Apple on top of
> the mobile and telecom infrastructure, Amazon and Google on top of the
> internet. The pattern is so consistent across technologies that it's
> essentially a law of how general-purpose infrastructure creates value.
>
> There's no reason to think AI - a general-purpose technology of the same
> order - will turn out any different. If anything, the pattern may be even
> more pronounced, because the surface area of potential AI applications is
> larger than any previous general-purpose technology: every industry, every
> knowledge-work process, every product category can in principle be rebuilt
> with AI inside it.
>
> As such, if that is correct, it means that the approach the U.S. is taking
> is strategically incoherent on its own terms. Seeing AI diffusion as
> something that ought to be resisted, slowed, and controlled gets the
> economics exactly backwards: diffusion is *precisely* the thing that
> enables value in the first place. Arguing against it is just as misguided
> as if American legislators had argued for restrictions on global mobile
> adoption in 2007, in the name of “winning” the mobile revolution: the $3
> trillion Apple of today exists precisely because it did the opposite.
> Diffusion wasn't the threat to Apple's value - diffusion *was* Apple's
> value.
>
> Now I can already hear you retort: “sure, but AI is different, what about
> AGI, surely the country that reaches it first will have a tremendous
> competitive advantage over everyone else, no?”
>
> Let’s look into this because it’s probably the main argument hawks are
> making in favor of the current American approach. The claim being that AGI
> is not like electricity. Electricity was a tool that humans used to do
> things. AGI will be an agent - a system that can itself reason, plan,
> conduct research, and improve itself. The moment a sufficiently capable AGI
> comes online, the argument runs, it will be able to compound its own
> advantages: designing better chips, writing its own successor systems,
> solving the bottlenecks that currently constrain human science and
> engineering.
>
> The country that controls that system will, in effect, have added a
> superhuman research-and-development engine to its economy, its military,
> and its intelligence apparatus. Rival countries will not be able to catch
> up by copying, because the leader will be using AGI to move faster than
> copying can achieve. By this logic, AGI is the last general-purpose
> technology - the one that hands permanent advantage to whoever gets it
> first - and treating it like “just another technology to diffuse” isn't
> pragmatism, it's catastrophic strategic naïveté.
>
> First of all, note the implied assumption in this thinking: that it would
> be acceptable - desirable, even - for one country to achieve permanent,
> structural dominance over every other country on Earth - provided, of
> course, that country is the United States. It’s presented as self-evident
> and the natural order of things but let’s be very clear about what this
> vision means when you strip away the techno-utopist language: the permanent
> subjugation of every human being who doesn't happen to be American.
>
> If you’re based outside the U.S. and you’re deluded enough to go along
> with this, let me suggest a thought experiment. Picture the current U.S.
> administration and imagine it with ten times its current leverage over your
> country. Because that's roughly what “permanent American AGI dominance”
> actually means for you. Every tariff decision, every threat that you
> already resent? Multiply it by an order of magnitude, make it permanent,
> and make it enforced by a technology your country cannot meaningfully match
> or resist. That is the future you quite literally cheer for if you happen
> to reflexively root for the Palantir-Anthropic-OpenAI vision for AI.
>
> Thankfully though, this is purely theoretical because it has no chance of
> happening anytime soon. Let’s come back down to earth: AI is at a stage
> right now where it cannot even reliably perform tasks a competent
> six-year-old can perform. Current frontier models still routinely
> hallucinate facts, fail at basic arithmetic, lose track of long
> conversations, and cannot navigate a physical world they have no experience
> of.
>
> They are, to be clear, extraordinary tools - vastly more useful than what
> existed even two years ago. But the leap from “extraordinary tool that
> still can't multiply two four-digit numbers reliably” to “self-improving
> superintelligence capable of reorganizing global power structures” is - at
> this stage - a leap of religious faith.
>
> If you don’t believe me, go try to change your flight date by chatting
> with any airline's AI customer service bot, and report back on how your
> imminent civilizational transformation feels. Or try to resolve literally
> *any* problem with the customer service bot of your bank or your telecom
> provider.
>
> These systems are all powered by current frontier AI, deployed at scale,
> by well-funded companies with every incentive to make them work. And yet
> the universal experience of interacting with them is an exercise in immense
> frustration as they fail to understand what you’re asking, misremember what
> you said two messages ago, confidently invent policies that don’t exist,
> and eventually escalate you to a human anyway.
>
> If this is what the technology can actually do when deployed in production
> by companies that have spent millions on integration - if THIS is the state
> of the art - the notion that it’s on the edge of becoming a self-improving
> god-like intelligence capable of dominating geopolitics is, let’s be
> charitable, difficult to reconcile with observable reality.
>
> The “seek truth from facts” reality is that model companies have an
> inherent interest in making everyone believe that AGI is just around the
> corner - because their entire business model, their valuations, and their
> political influence depend on it being true. Strip away the AGI narrative
> and the frontier U.S. labs are infrastructure providers in a brutally
> commoditizing market. In a world where this commoditization is allowed to
> run its course, the model labs become utilities - high fixed costs, eroding
> pricing power, the AT&T of the AI century. Their trillion-dollar
> valuations, their hundred-billion-dollar capital raises - all of it
> evaporates.
>
> Unless, of course, AGI is imminent - which it isn’t ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
>
> And, in any case, the point is moot because even if AGI were imminent, a
> “seek truth from facts” look at the scoreboard tells you the hoarding
> strategy has already failed. DeepSeek V4 matches U.S. frontier models on
> most benchmarks that matter
> <https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro>. Alibaba's Qwen,
> Moonshot's Kimi, Zhipu's GLM are all at or near the frontier. The entire
> architecture of export controls, chip bans, and military-industrial
> integration was designed to prevent exactly this. It didn't work. Not
> “might not work” - it has already factually failed, today, on April 24,
> 2026. China has caught up, is releasing open-weight frontier models and
> just demonstrated with DeepSeek V4 it can do so on entirely domestic
> silicon. Continuing to act as if dominance is still achievable - as
> Palantir, Anthropic, and OpenAI keep insisting in their strategy documents
> - is just denial of reality.
>
> This is actually the main risk in AI right now. Not the superintelligence
> scenario the labs keep warning us about. Instead, it’s the labs themselves,
> or more precisely their lobbying power on the U.S. government, which has
> quietly become one of the most successful regulatory capture operations in
> history. A handful of companies - OpenAI, Anthropic, Palantir, their close
> allies - have managed to make every piece of public discourse about AI
> happen on their terms, which is factually leading the U.S. into concrete
> policy choices that are not only bad for the world, but also for the U.S.
> themselves.
>
> Bad for the U.S. because it systematically pours American capital into the
> layers that are commoditizing - chips, infrastructure, models - while
> actively shrinking the addressable market of the one layer where durable,
> century-defining fortunes actually get built. And their policies
> simultaneously encourage the exact outcome they’re designed to prevent:
> they’ve empirically helped create a credible alternative AI that is just as
> good, free, genuinely open and shipping on entirely non-American silicon -
> thereby amplifying the very commoditization they’re trying to delay.
>
> Bad for the world because while the US spends its energy on export
> controls, chip bans, and strategic denial, the actual work of figuring out
> how humanity integrates a transformative new technology - the norms, the
> institutions, the shared understanding of what AI should and shouldn’t do -
> is being crowded out of the conversation entirely. Every minute of
> political oxygen consumed by “how do we win” is a minute not spent on “how
> do we do this well.” And the darkest irony is that “how do we win” isn’t
> even a question the American public asked for - it’s a question
> manufactured, funded, and amplified by the small cluster of labs - the
> Anthropics, the OpenAIs, the Palantirs - whose business model depends on
> humanity never getting around to asking the better one.
>
> Long story short, there is, in fact, no AI race:
>
>    1.
>
>    It's a narrative manufactured and amplified by a handful of labs whose
>    valuations depend on it
>    2.
>
>    The economics of general-purpose technologies actively punish “race
>    winners”
>    3.
>
>    Even on the hawks' own terms - AGI - there's no race to win since it’s
>    already empirically been lost
>
> A hundred years from now, the idea that anyone seriously framed AI as a
> race between nations will sound exactly as absurd as a race to “win”
> electricity sounds to us today. The Book of Han had it right in 111 CE:
> seek truth from facts.
>
>
>

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