That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
Geoff Huston wrote: > Mike Leber wrote: >> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected >> until IPv4 exhaustion: >> >> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ > > .... > >> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do >> that? >> >> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :) >> > > > I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play > out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's > x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model > with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea! > > IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address > allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively > large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking > large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It > could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very > uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change > in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or .... > > So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to > the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... > but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years. > > regards, > > Geoff > > > > > _______________________________________________ > NANOG mailing list > NANOG@nanog.org > http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog > -- Registered Microsoft Partner My "Foundation" verse: Isa 54:17 _______________________________________________ NANOG mailing list NANOG@nanog.org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
