*Israel destroyed life in Gaza but it is far from victorious *
Analysts say the weaknesses exposed on 7 October have only been
exacerbated by its conduct in the war
By Lubna Masarwa <https://www.middleeasteye.net/users/lubna-masarwa>in
Jerusalem and Huthifa Fayyad
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/users/huthifa-fayyad>16 January 2025
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-destroyed-life-gaza-far-from-victorious
After 15 months of relentless bombardment that has caused unprecedented
death and destruction in Gaza
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-war-gaza>, analysts say
Israel <https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel>is far from
victorious.
Despite its overwhelming firepower and international backing, Israel has
failed to achieve several of its key objectives for the war, launched on
7 October 2023 after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.
This failure, coupled with the immense human cost in Gaza, reveals a
deeper crisis within Israel’s military and political strategies, say
analysts Sami Orabi and Ameer Makhoul.
7 October was a massive strategic, military and intelligence failure for
Israel, one that its armed forces were intent on making up for.
However, in many ways Israel’s military actions have only exacerbated
those weaknesses, not strengthened them, argue Orabi and Makhoul.
“Israel was forced to sign an agreement with the movement it said it
came to destroy, eradicate and root out,” Orabi, a Ramallah-based
political analyst, told Middle East Eye. “This means the image shattered
on 7 October has not been restored up until this moment.”
But despite that failure, Israel's sole success shouldn’t be ignored:
destroying life in Gaza.
This will leave Palestinians
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/palestine>in Gaza, including
Hamas, with immense challenges in the future, they add.
*No winners *
When assessing the war and forecasting its repercussions, one can’t
overlook the immense human cost and the massive destruction in Gaza,
says Orabi.
“The discussion about success and failure should be cautious and
reserved to a large extent, as it must take into account the human cost
paid inside Gaza,” he added.
“We can say that the occupation has not been able to achieve some of its
goals, but we cannot overlook the massive destruction and the severe
human cost it imposed on the Palestinians inside Gaza.”
Makhoul, a Haifa-based writer and activist, adds that considering this,
there is no clear winner of the war.
“The Palestinian people paid an extremely heavy price that cannot be
described as ‘victory’ or paid for the sake of victory,” he told MEE.
“On the other hand, Israel cannot claim any form of victory. On the
contrary, there is an internal feeling within Israel that it has been
defeated.”
Israel failed to achieve major strategic or military victories. In fact,
it could be argued that Israel has lost strategically, leaving it in a
worse position globally and regionally than it was on 6 October 2023.
Most of the goals set out by Israel after the surprise Hamas-led
assault, which killed around 1,200 Israelis, have not been met.
Those include the elimination of Hamas’ military wing, toppling its
government and releasing all 240 Israeli captives held in Gaza.
There are failures in achieving other unannounced objectives too, such
as restoring deterrence, expelling Palestinians from Gaza and occupying
parts of the enclave, according to the analysts.
“The Israeli occupation failed to displace Palestinians outside the Gaza
Strip, enforce settlement, impose long-term military occupation,
eliminate Hamas or find an alternative to its rule,” explained Orabi.
*Long-term ramifications *
Makhoul goes further, stating that Israel has not only failed militarily
but also strategically, with the collapse of political alliances and a
tarnished international reputation.
The alliances with Arab countries forged during the first Donald Trump
administration have been rapidly eroded, leaving Israel with fewer
regional and international allies.
"Israel’s strategic weight has significantly declined on both the Arab
and global levels," Makhoul asserts.
Israel’s actions have also led to a profound shift in global perception,
both analysts say.
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-gaza-ceasefire-full-text-agreement>
Israel-Gaza ceasefire: Full text of agreement
Read More »
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-gaza-ceasefire-full-text-agreement>
The West's once-unchallenged support for Israel is now being questioned,
with increasing calls for accountability.
Makhoul notes that the Palestinian issue has re-emerged forcefully on
the international agenda, particularly in light of Israel’s violations
of international law.
"The Palestinian issue is now in a very strong strategic position on the
global stage," he writes, citing the International Court of Justice's
preliminary ruling that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza
and the growing international pressure on Israel.
On the other hand, Hamas will find immense challenges to resolve once
the guns fall silent.
It will have to face the Palestinian people and justify the war,
facilitate the reconstruction of Gaza and rebuild its capabilities,
according to Orabi.
“The reconstruction process will be a major challenge,” he said.
“We have thousands of orphaned children, children who survived while
their entire families were wiped out, sometimes a seven-year-old child
responsible for a one- or two-year-old sibling, and so on,” he added.
“In addition, there are many wounded. There are major social questions
to address.”
*Deterrence and defiance *
One of the major changes that will take time to assess is how this war
has affected Israel’s perception by its enemies, and whether the war
will act as deterrence.
“Did the Israelis succeed in changing the Palestinian people’s
perception regarding the futility of resistance?” Orabi asked.
While the destruction of Gaza has been catastrophic, the refusal to
capitulate has made Hamas a symbol of defiance, he argues.
This, along with human suffering, will be a driving force behind the
broader Palestinian struggle in the long term.
The significance of the 7 October attack, which exposed vulnerabilities
in Israel’s intelligence and military capabilities, will remain forever
present.
"For the first time, Israel could be targeted, deceived and defeated,"
Orabi said.
This, he believes, will have lasting implications for the future of both
Palestinian resistance and Israeli security for years to come.
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