I would argue that it is related to third party dedicated servers. The people left in charge of TF2 have been out of touch with players for a while and only now is it becoming more obvious. We face the brunt of these bad policies because we don't have a stream of new mann co store fodder from quickplay. A few years ago the thought of making a major patch locked behind an uncraftable purchase would not even have crossed their minds.
Despite 3 major non-MvM patches, global player counts are again on their way to declining back to beginning of the year levels. With the amount of developer time spent on the game, TF2 should not be 1/5th the size of CS. I've seen many quality servers die out this year. Custom servers are also dying because new players aren't being exposed enough to the fact that custom servers exist.
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