Much of the discussion has been about what analogy comes closest. Prosecutors
tend to view PGP passphrases as akin to someone possessing a key to a safe
filled with incriminating documents.
s/Prosecutors/Judges
Nobody really cares what prosecutors view it as: the question is what
they can get a judge to rule it as.
That said, the analogy is pretty much exact. If the documents in the
safe would incriminate you, and the government knows they exist and
roughly what their contents are, then yes, you can be subpoenaed to
provide them. (If the government doesn't know they exist or generally
what their contents are, the subpoena gets rejected as an illegal
fishing expedition.)
If knowing the combination *by itself* would incriminate you, then you
can't be compelled to provide.
For instance, let's say that a safe has been robbed. There's no signs
of forced entry or safecracking. The government demands you cough up
the combination, in order to prove that you had the means to commit the
crime. You object on grounds that proving you had the means to commit
the crime would tend to implicate you in the crime. The judge refuses
the government's motion to compel you to produce the combination in court.
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