I have put down a deposit on a Slate, electric pickup available in late 2026; even though I am less than sanguine about the charging availability in the future. When I was in Amsterdam, pre-pandemic, the City would put a charging station in front of any home or apartment where a tenant/owner purchased an electric vehicle.
I would agree as to the inevitability of a collapse but, perhaps, less optimistic as to how far "back in time" we will find ourselves. I am keeping close to hand my Whole Earth Catalogs and Mother Jones periodicals. davew On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 12:31 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote: > Yes, good points. My wife and I drive an electric car because I believe it is > the future. On the small street in Berlin where I live there are 4 charging > stations now, 10 years ago there were none. European cities have a lot more > electric cars and electric buses compared to 10 years ago. In Paris for > example you only see electric buses which reduce noise and pollution a lot. > We still have a long way to go, though. > > > It is clear that we have to start the transition to renewable energy and a > more sustainable economy *now* - and need to continue it where it has already > started - but for various reasons, including those you mentioned, it will > most likely not be possible for the 8 billion people on Earth. > > > Which means a collapse of civilization is no longer a bugaboo, an imaginary > object of fear, and it becomes increasingly likely we are heading towards a > collapse of civilization and a destruction of our ecosystems (either through > climate change, and insurmountable piles of nuclear and plastic waste, or by > a long period of wars, or by natural disasters). There are many reasons why > civilizations collapse. > > https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259285/amongst-the-ruins/ > > > Those who survive the collapse will need to find a more sustainable way to > live. The only way forward which does not destroy the ecosystems we live in > is to > > + use renewable energy > > + avoid burning fossil-fuels > > + eliminate waste by recycling > > + stop consuming non-renewable resources > > + stop production of nuclear waste > > + stop population growth > > > In others words we need to respect the axioms of sustainability if we do not > want to destroy the planet we live on > > https://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-02-05/five-axioms-sustainability/ > > > > -J. > > > > > -------- Original message -------- > From: Prof David West <[email protected]> > Date: 6/1/25 5:28 PM (GMT+01:00) > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth > > Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will never be enough 'fossil > fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy for electric vehicles. > > Data centers, driven in large part by AI demands and cryptocurrency will > leave nothing left over. > > Some numbers: > > Three Mile Island, which is being recommissioned to supply power to a couple > of Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year. > > In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by 2026 this is estimated > to be 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh. > > Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and 400-600 in 2040. > > Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this demand. > > Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100 TMI-capacity nuclear > plants to supply that 25%. > > If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will require between 66,000 and > 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't know how many batteries, but the > number is not trivial.) > > Wind power, for that 75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000 turbines, each > requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath them. (Also the problem of batteries.) > > It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have no idea now many > dollars. > > Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can be installed fast enough to meet > this demand and, again, have no idea of cost. > > Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your home and office, or to charge > your phone: unless, of course we continue to rely on oil (shale and > fracking), natural gas, and coal. > > davew > > > > > On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: >> This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a kid waiting >> for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power stations into the mix, and >> voilà: abundant clean energy, no miracle inventions required. Just some >> clever tech and a whole lot of charging cables! >> >> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote: >>> I believe we all have a slighty distorted view because we were all born >>> long after industrialization has started and have seen nothing but growth. >>> Industrialization started around 200 years ago in Great Britain and spread >>> shortly after to America and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam >>> engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as >>> well as normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil. >>> >>> >>> Richard Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth": "with the fossil >>> fuel revolution of the past century and a half, we have seen economic >>> growth at a speed and scale unprecedented in all of human history. We >>> harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas to build and operate >>> cars, trucks, highways, airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the >>> esential features of modern industrial society. Through the one-time-only >>> process of extracting and burning hundreds of millions of years worth of >>> chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared (for a brief, shining >>> moment) to be a perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was in >>> fact an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...] During >>> the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels >>> enabled rapid economic expansion at an average rate of about three percent >>> per year; economic planners began to take this situain for granted. >>> Financial systems internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of >>> returns on investments." >>> >>> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book >>> >>> >>> Heinberg argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels has come to an >>> end. There 1.5 billion cars in the world which consume oil and produce CO2. >>> Resources are depleted while pollution and population have reached all time >>> highs. It is true that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially in >>> times of scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to find replacements >>> for depleted resources, but Heinberg argues in his book "Peak Everything: >>> that "in a finite world, the number of possible replacements is also >>> finite". For example we were able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, >>> but finding a replacement for petroleum is much harder. >>> >>> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything >>> >>> >>> Without oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no container or cruise >>> ship would be able to go anywhere and therefore international trade and >>> tourism would stop. On the bright side no more plastic and CO2 pollution >>> either. >>> >>> >>> In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition towns" as a path >>> towards a more sustainable society and an economy which is not based on >>> fossil-fuels. >>> >>> https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/ >>> >>> >>> >>> French author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the paradise of the >>> rich is made out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to realize >>> this and help to find a way to a more sustainable, livable society it would >>> be a start. >>> >>> >>> >>> -J. >>> >>> >>> -------- Original message -------- >>> From: Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> >>> Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00) >>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth >>> >>> I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on >>> the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs >>> circles today. >>> >>> https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet >>> >>> This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up, >>> as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at >>> using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster. >>> >>> The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems to >>> be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing okay—messy, >>> uneven, but okay. >>> >>> Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business. >>> >>> On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> __ >>>> REC - >>>> >>>> Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal work in >>>> college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3 before the Stockholm >>>> workshop on Climate (and other existential threats) Complexity Merle >>>> wrangled in 2019.... and was both impressed and disappointed. Rockstrom >>>> and folks were located right across the water from us where we met but to >>>> my knowledge didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did >>>> not feel as relevant to me then as it does now. >>>> >>>> In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of the things >>>> I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework previoiusly. It was >>>> there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't see it and I think they were >>>> not ready to talk as broadly of implications 5 years ago as they are now? >>>> >>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4 >>>>> >>>> Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and meltwater from >>>> the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of the times or "business as usual"? >>>> >>>> - SAS >>>> >>>> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: >>>>> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/ >>>>> >>>>> I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in college. Now >>>>> Hackernews links to the above in which some people argue that we've >>>>> achieved the predicted overshoot for the business as usual scenario and >>>>> the subsequent collapse begins now. Enjoy the peak of human >>>>> technological development. >>>>> >>>>> -- rec -- >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >>>>> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>>>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >>>> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >>> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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