This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power stations into the mix, and voilà: abundant clean energy, no miracle inventions required. Just some clever tech and a whole lot of charging cables!
On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote: > I believe we all have a slighty distorted view because we were all born > long after industrialization has started and have seen nothing but growth. > Industrialization started around 200 years ago in Great Britain and spread > shortly after to America and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam > engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as > well as normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil. > > Richard Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth": "with the fossil > fuel revolution of the past century and a half, we have seen economic > growth at a speed and scale unprecedented in all of human history. We > harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas to build and operate > cars, trucks, highways, airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the > esential features of modern industrial society. Through the one-time-only > process of extracting and burning hundreds of millions of years worth of > chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared (for a brief, shining > moment) to be a perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was in > fact an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...] During > the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels > enabled rapid economic expansion at an average rate of about three percent > per year; economic planners began to take this situain for granted. > Financial systems internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of > returns on investments." > > https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book > > Heinberg argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels has come to an > end. There 1.5 billion cars in the world which consume oil and produce CO2. > Resources are depleted while pollution and population have reached all time > highs. It is true that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially in > times of scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to find replacements > for depleted resources, but Heinberg argues in his book "Peak Everything: > that "in a finite world, the number of possible replacements is also > finite". For example we were able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, > but finding a replacement for petroleum is much harder. > > https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything > > Without oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no container or > cruise ship would be able to go anywhere and therefore international trade > and tourism would stop. On the bright side no more plastic and CO2 > pollution either. > > In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition towns" as a path > towards a more sustainable society and an economy which is not based on > fossil-fuels. > > https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/ > > > French author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the paradise of the > rich is made out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to realize > this and help to find a way to a more sustainable, livable society it would > be a start. > > > -J. > > > -------- Original message -------- > From: Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> > Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00) > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth > > I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on > the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs > circles today. > > https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet > > This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up, > as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at > using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster. > > The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems > to be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing > okay—messy, uneven, but okay. > > Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business. > > On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote: > >> REC - >> >> Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal work in >> college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3 before the Stockholm >> workshop on Climate (and other existential threats) Complexity Merle >> wrangled in 2019.... and was both impressed and disappointed. Rockstrom >> and folks were located right across the water from us where we met but to >> my knowledge didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not >> feel as relevant to me then as it does now. >> >> In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of the things >> I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework previoiusly. It was >> there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't see it and I think they were not >> ready to talk as broadly of implications 5 years ago as they are now? >> >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4 >> >> Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and meltwater >> from the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of the times or "business as >> usual"? >> >> - SAS >> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: >> >> >> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/ >> >> I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in college. Now >> Hackernews links to the above in which some people argue that we've >> achieved the predicted overshoot for the business as usual scenario and the >> subsequent collapse begins now. Enjoy the peak of human technological >> development. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> >> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> >> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / >> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / > ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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