Of course, ending the war is a worthy goal! But let’s be real—there have to be some conditions. If "ending the war" means Ukraine just gives up and hands everything to Russia, then that’s not exactly a win, is it? As Zelensky put it:
"Nobody wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to talk and find a way to real peace as soon as possible. And honestly, no one wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I are ready to work with President Trump to get a peace deal that actually lasts." In other words—yes to peace, but not the kind where you wave a white flag and hope for the best! On Thu, 6 Mar 2025 at 04:41, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > It is an assumption that ending the war is a worthy goal. > > On Mar 5, 2025, at 6:33 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <piet...@randcontrols.co.za> > wrote: > > > Ah, now I see how it works! > > If Trump's actions accidentally lead to a good outcome—well, that’s just > an unintended consequence. > If things go south, though—obviously, it’s all Trump’s fault. > Conclusion? Trump is bad, no matter what. > > How about we skip the pre-packaged outrage and just focus on what he’s > actually doing to end the war in Ukraine? Crazy idea, I know. > > > On Wed, 5 Mar 2025 at 18:16, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > >> What did Zelensky get for it? Trump cuts off U.S. ISR. One of the >> things that Europe cannot replace. >> >> >> >> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter >> Steenekamp >> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 5, 2025 5:28 AM >> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >> friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn. >> >> >> >> Another round of popcorn, please—the plot thickens. >> >> After Friday’s tantrum in the White House, Zelensky has decided to toe >> the line. >> >> Start quoting Zelensky ( >> https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1896948147085049916) >> >> I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace. >> >> None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the >> negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody >> wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under >> President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts. >> >> We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be >> the release of prisoners and a truce in the sky—a ban on missiles, >> long-range drones, and bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure—as >> well as an immediate truce at sea, if Russia does the same. Then we want to >> move very fast through all the next stages and work with the US to agree on >> a strong final deal. >> >> We truly value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its >> sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things >> changed—when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are >> grateful for this. >> >> Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the >> way it was supposed to. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is >> time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and >> communication to be constructive. >> >> Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to >> sign it anytime and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a >> step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly >> hope it will work effectively. >> >> End quote >> >> I’m particularly pleased about this because I believe Trump’s peace deal >> could lead to a very good outcome. Here’s why: >> >> - The war continues to exact a heavy toll on both Ukraine and Russia, in >> both human lives and economic impact. >> - The risk of escalation into a catastrophic scenario—such as nuclear >> conflict or even World War III—is significantly reduced. >> - In many ways, Russia has already lost. Their goal was to capture Kyiv >> and control all of Ukraine, but that is now completely unrealistic. Their >> economy is in ruins, they’ve lost thousands of soldiers, and Putin has >> broken the social contract with Russian citizens. Another invasion? All but >> impossible. >> - Putin’s global standing is in shambles. Before the invasion, he and Xi >> were the two key leaders of BRICS. Now, Xi stands alone—one less adversary >> to worry about. >> >> Take a minute to think about it. Until now, Zelensky seemed determined to >> continue the war with no clear end in sight. How long did he think it could >> go on? At what cost? Now, he’s backing Trump’s peace initiative. Maybe it >> will fail, and the war will continue—but surely, it’s worth a shot. Right? >> >> >> >> On Wed, 5 Mar 2025 at 04:16, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: >> >> You’ve got one job Deep State. One Job. >> >> >> >> *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of steve smith < >> sasm...@swcp.com> >> *Date: *Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM >> *To: *friam@redfish.com <friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn. >> >> >> >> On 3/4/25 10:15 AM, Tom Johnson wrote: >> >> You're assuming the ongoing presence of Trump and Putin. >> >> I don't know about Putin, but Trump is a cult leader. If something >> happens to him, Vance etc al. can't carry the water. >> >> I agree, nobody able to carry Trump's nor Putin's water (as it were)... >> a bit of a red=herring at that point... some wild card might appear out of >> nowhere and (mis)fill the void in some unexpected way (e.g. Asimov's "Mule" >> of "theFoundation"?) >> >> One tiny anueurism or a dose of pollonium in the diet coke or some >> Ioicane Powder and the modern world diffracts off into some strange new >> basin of attraction we haven't even imagined? >> >> *Viva la punctuated equllibrium!* >> >> >> >> T >> >> >> >> >> >> ======================= >> Tom Johnson >> Inst. for Analytic Journalism >> Santa Fe, New Mexico >> 505-577-6482 >> ======================= >> >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, 9:44 PM steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: >> >> Friday afternoon the simple term "WWIII" took on a whole new >> understanding/context for me. >> >> Before that it was some variation on a nuclear exchange between any 2-3 >> of the major nuclear powers (US/USSR/China) which was held at bay mostly by >> variations on MAD. Not only did the possibility of retaliation (before >> first-strike lands, or soon after) make it unthinkable, but so did the >> challenges of regional and global nuclear contamination and a likely >> nuclear winter (minimum of northern hemisphere, but global consequences). >> >> Now I see it being something more like a new European War similar to WWI >> & WWII, not involving North America directly (we don't pitch nor catch any) >> >> 1. Europe sends in air and ground troops (and more equipment) to >> Ukraine to squash Putin's vestigal army. Marcus' no-fly-zone. >> >> >> 1. Ukraine continues to punish Russia (e.g. destroying military >> assets inside Russia) >> 2. The European coalition masses conventional forces on Russian >> borders with a "ready posture" >> 3. Russia is humiliated. >> 4. Putin (not Russia) in his humiliation decides to use his >> nukes... craters half the major cities or capitols in UK/EU. >> 5. France and UK have a *handful* of nukes. I'm out of date, most >> or all are on nuclear subs which Russia may or may not know the >> location of. >> 6. Moscow and a few 'grads become craters. >> 7. Nuclear Winter >> 8. Misery across Eurasia, the likes of which Russians are more >> accustomed >> >> >> 2. Europe can't agree enough to give Ukraine decisive support (as in >> 1 above). >> >> >> 1. Russia grinds Ukraine down, while using up yet more of it's own >> dwindling military and human capital. >> 2. Europe and Russia rattle sabers for months or years but Russia >> is too depleted to continue a conventional war. >> 3. Russia (Putin) gets impatient or arrogant and decides to nuke >> European powers. >> 4. Again, the handful of non-US nukes targeted on Russia are >> enough to make a bad mess and maybe even win but only if used >> pre-emptively. >> 5. (Western) Eurasia is a mess for a century. >> >> >> 3. In either case MAGA (with/without Trump alive/vital/engaged) sits >> back and eats popcorn. >> >> >> 1. If MAGA holds US power, they grind away at European and possibly >> Russian resources, stealing and war profiteering boldly. >> 2. Maybe anti-MAGA backlashes MAGA out of power (probably has to >> be a strong political win followed by some minor but decisive >> bloodshed). >> Maybe we help them rebuild (similar to post-WWII) or maybe we just sit >> back >> on our side of the Ocean. >> >> >> 4. China waits patiently for the right moment to grab Mongolia for >> it's "raw earth" (trump SIC) and/or Taiwan.... possibly are both worth >> their effort... possibly the US uses the European distraction as an >> opportunity to treat China as our only overt competitor. >> >> I don't see the world "a better place" for any of this except in the >> extreme case of significant depopulation of both (sadly) third-world >> innocents and first-world belligerents (military, political, economic), and >> even then it isn't clear to me just *when* or *how* the "meek inherit the >> earth" but I'll be damned if it isn't an outcome I find myself rooting >> for! Feels like if COVID had just been slightly more virulent, we might >> have gotten there by a vaguely more graceful route? >> >> GAH! >> >> >> >> On 3/3/25 9:10 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >> >> >> 1. NATO creates a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and destroys any Russian >> asset in Ukraine >> 2. The Ukranians continue to develop their drone programs for >> targeted attacks in Russia >> 3. Europe gives them long-range weapons, Storm Shadow and Taurus for >> larger targets >> >> >> >> Biden should have just done this, knowing that Trump would throw the >> world into chaos. >> >> >> >> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On >> Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp >> *Sent:* Monday, March 3, 2025 7:50 PM >> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >> <friam@redfish.com> <friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn. >> >> >> >> >> A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of Ukraine >> >> The Case Against Trump >> Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been fighting back heroically for >> three years. It is crucial to take decisive action against countries that >> invade others unprovoked. A good example is the First Gulf War, when Iraq >> invaded Kuwait, and the U.S. led a coalition to push Iraq out. That kind of >> response helps maintain international order. >> >> However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor and openly aligns >> himself with Putin. His stance undermines the principle of standing against >> aggression and emboldens authoritarian regimes. His willingness to cozy up >> to Putin is simply wrong. Period. >> >> The Case For Trump >> Maintaining international order is important, but only if you have the >> power to enforce it effectively. If you can't win a war, engaging in it is >> a mistake. Consider how the U.S. aligned with Stalin in the later stages of >> World War II—not because Stalin was good, but because confronting him >> directly wasn’t a realistic option at the time. Putin may be an amateur >> compared to Stalin, but the logic remains: if you can’t stop him, you may >> have to find a way to work with him. >> >> Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path to pushing Russia out >> of Ukraine unless the U.S. commits fully—boots on the ground. But no one in >> America supports that. Given this, there’s a case for engaging with Russia >> pragmatically, much like how the U.S. dealt with Stalin, to bring the war >> to an end. >> >> Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly, without full military >> commitment, has serious downsides. The war could drag on indefinitely, and >> if Ukraine eventually wins, Russia would be humiliated. A humiliated >> nuclear-armed Russia is a dangerous prospect. History offers a >> warning—Germany’s humiliation after World War I directly contributed to the >> rise of Hitler. The consequences of a humiliated Russia could be similarly >> unpredictable and catastrophic. >> >> My Take >> In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in South Africa—Nelson >> Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us. But surely, with today's >> AI, we could create a virtual Madiba, and he would know exactly what to do. >> >> >> >> >> On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28, Tom Johnson <jtjohnson...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> So as usual: Follow the Money. >> If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare earth minerals, upon >> leaving Ukraine, where does that ore go and to whom? My bet is to some >> company(ies) that Trump et al. have interests in. >> >> TJ >> >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: >> >> It’s such an encapsulation of that part of the society (including t and >> v) to think that they could “humiliate” Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a >> conversation with toxic scum, on the relevance of reality, he was about the >> only clean thing in the room that could be heard. >> >> There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think that trump can be somehow >> managed by a canny player. That doesn’t ring correct to me, unless the >> player has a lot of power and money, and it is the power and money that are >> managing trump. No agreement with trump is worth the paper it is written >> on. We all understand that he will do anything he is not stopped from >> doing. The problem with the american presidency is that there become fewer >> and fewer actors who can stop its occupant from doing things, in the era of >> political parties as universalizing corrupting bodies. If this whole train >> continues, they will eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and power enough >> that its ability to do damage declines. But there is so much accumulated >> right now, that they can do enormous harm before they undercut themselves. >> >> I am persuaded by those who opine that trump has no intention of doing >> anything to aid Ukraine, and that the point of the performance was to put >> up a front for not doing anything, for the same audience who interprets any >> of that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy. If trump could extort money or >> resource access, and then backstab in return for it, I expect he would be >> interested in that opportunity. But not more than that. >> >> I also think that people are living a little bit in the past when they >> comment that, with trump, it’s always about money. That was before the >> first presidency, when his possibilities to exercise abusive power over >> other people in a country with some degree of rule of law was limited, >> relative to the amount of spending he could do (whether solvent or >> insolvent). But the access to abusive power in the presidency, for a >> sociopath, is on a scale not available to anybody else. If money was >> heroin for that addiction, the power of the presidency is fentanyl, and I >> don’t think trump is going back now. Money: fine; but that’s now the >> second motive. >> >> (I think there are elements of this for Musk as well, but there is enough >> about him that is different that I wouldn’t put him in the same category, >> or in the same post here.) >> >> I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I don’t even have any >> sophistication thinking in this sphere. But from my long distance from it, >> I can imagine that the calculus is roughly this at the moment: It is still >> possible that trump won’t direct the u.s. military to attack Ukraine >> directly. The question whether it is possible comes back, entirely, to >> what force is available to stop him from ordering it. I don’t doubt for a >> minute that, if the EU starts to get scared, and if they have time to act >> constructively, enough to start to give Ukraine meaningful ability to hold >> land or push back a bit, the u.s. under trump would act as a saboteur of >> that effort. >> >> If that is the correct vantage point, I would imagine that Zelenskyy’s >> challenge is to try to orient the rest of the world into some structure >> that will hem trump and the trumpers in as much as possible from direct >> attack, and where possible against sabotage. (Sabotage is harder, because >> to even find out that it is going on, you need somebody on the inside to >> report.) If they can get some weapons out of the weapons contractors and >> the congressmen, sure; try to do what you can. But any of that has meaning >> only when it is in your hands and being used. Don’t put weight on anything >> short of that. >> >> (I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the true problem that the >> current condition is a WWI-type trench warfare with drones, and the >> prospect of extending that to a point of collapse is already so bad, that >> it takes something truly awful for that not to be the worst. I don’t see >> indication that any good-faith actor anywhere is denying that, though I >> don’t think saying it, alone, makes one a good-faith actor.) >> >> >> I had a conversation with a friend over the weekend who is a NASA program >> manager, and who interpreted a recent directive they had received, to >> discontinue the use of paper straws, and replace them with plastic straws, >> as a kickback to some petroleum company that had bribed trump. Given that >> this is a smart person I am talking to, the quaintness of that >> interpretation took my breath away. It seems clear beyond daylight, to me, >> that the images of turtles with straws in their noses, and seabirds dead of >> them, were the breakthrough that the environmental groups finally got with >> the public, to get some action to ban that specific plastic item as one of >> the most insidiously dangerous and cruel. The point of the paper-straw ban >> was the point of everything with these people. Most directly, it was an >> intent to deliver a “defeat” to the environmental groups, focusing on the >> image that had succeeded for them precisely because it is so awful to have >> to see more of. But more generally, this is the core of meanness. It is a >> rage, by those who are defiled in their nature, against the existence of >> anything that isn’t defiled. >> >> This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the last-century European >> political actors: that they didn’t understand the distinction between the >> parties and the movements. The parties wanted to control the government, >> whereas the movements wanted to destroy the government. Public commentary >> on this drives me nuts, because it seems to exactly repeat this error. >> People talk about the appointments of degraded morons to agency heads as >> being about loyalty: take somebody who couldn’t earn anything in a world of >> merit, and put him on a plush perch that he knows he will only retain as >> long as he can continue to curry favor. But I believe that only to about a >> 30% level as the motive. And it is an inward-facing motive; how to keep >> various functionaries on a leash. There is an outward-directed motive, and >> I think that is about 70% of the drive. These people are put there, >> because he couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the effort to eliminate >> the notion of legitimacy from the concept of society people will adopt and >> live within. >> >> The word I wanted to use for the latter, thinking over the weekend, was >> “vesting”. It’s a bit of a bland word, but it wraps up several things that >> otherwise I can’t encompass in one word. The cognitive concept of truth; >> abstract notions such as justice; the society as an agreement underpinned >> by legitimized institutions. What all these have in common is that people >> accept restraint to uphold a prior commitment to these other things as >> “higher” over the long run. And when the mob wants to destroy the state — >> meaning, really to destroy that concept of society — it is this “higher” >> that they can keep their attention fixed on, as all the other particular >> targets (immigrants, academics, civil servants, black people, gay people, >> etc.) get rotated in and out as opportunities arise. >> >> So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns out to be, over time, a loss >> for Zelenskyy — the reality behind the literary Faustian Bargain — he may >> not be worse off having the break occur earlier. I don’t know what it may >> buy him to have humiliated t and v, by having the dignity to not accept >> those terms of conversation, in terms of coalition-building with other >> heads of state. >> >> >> I do continue to wonder what China’s play in this will be. I imagine >> they think they will have no trouble “managing” Russia into some kind of >> continuing subordinate status, when it is alone with a gigantic land area >> but a limited economy and population. If it were even just Russia >> swallowing Ukraine, China might still think of that as an okay outcome. I >> feel pretty sure they want the rare earths, in view of their relations with >> Mongolia up to now, and the fact that the only thing protecting Taiwan is >> that it holds the entire world’s highest technology as a trust, and >> collapsing it would cause such a large global implosion that it would >> destabilize China as well, for now. But they probably figure they can get >> those from Russian control, where Russia couldn’t develop them internally >> anyway. An actual coalition of Russia with the U.S., however, could become >> more worrisome for China, even if the U.S. is undergoing a process of >> self-degradation. So it is not inconceivable to me that China could want >> some stalemate to go on a while longer, which limits the coordination of >> the trumpers with other large actors as much as feasible. Another Faustian >> bargain for Zelenskyy if it is offered. But maybe more predictable in the >> short term. >> >> But there, too, I don’t know anything. >> >> Eric >> >> >> >> > On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: >> > >> > >> >> It's way too generous to say "Trump has a case". Trump and Vance's >> "case" consists of "You should be grateful to us because we give you >> money". I.e. suck up to me and I'll deign to give you more money. >> > I don't think Trump or Vance have backed any significant support for >> Ukraine. The US people through our elected representatives and tax >> dollars *HAVE* supported Ukraine (albeit a little slowly an a little >> anemically and a little timidly sometimes?). Zelensky has been >> extravagantly and eloquently thankful to all of the above. Trump and Vance >> were spoiling for an opportunity to try to humiliate Zelensky in front of >> the cameras, so they contrived it. >> >> Maybe someone makes the case you say is Trump's. But it's not Trump >> making that case. If he sporadically vomits words that sound like that, >> it's because they were put into his mouth by someone else. The question is >> Who put them there? Putin? Elno? Thiel? >> > >> > The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was extortion. Whether Ukraine's >> mineral resources could or should be mortgaged to secure the financial >> support is one thing, but the idea that the point of the West supporting >> Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive Putin-led Russia is about economics >> completely misses the point. Zelensky is right to avoid "doing business >> with" anyone who is not a clear staunch ally when in this situation. >> > >> > Trump & Allies are clearly "War Profiteers", a fine old tradition among >> the industrialists and financiers of the "free world". >> > >> > >> >> >> >> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: >> >>> Just watched a new episode where two toddlers threw their toys out of >> the cot. >> >>> >> >>> Zelensky makes a strong case — Putin is unreliable, having broken >> numerous agreements in the past, so any peace deal would need ironclad >> security guarantees. But lecturing Trump is hardly the way to secure a >> favorable minerals trade agreement. >> >>> >> >>> Trump also has a valid case — the war is stagnating, there’s no >> realistic military path to driving Russia out of Ukraine, and pursuing >> peace makes sense. But losing your temper at an international press >> conference is not the way to get there. >> >>> >> >>> At the end of the day, they’re all human, and it makes for great >> real-life drama. I can't wait for the next episode! >> >>> >> >> >> >> >> > <OpenPGP_0xD5BAF94F88AFFA63.asc>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... >> / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. >> ..- .-.. >> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,jwBcVvWV2qFLmVY1BdPfbz9PHIyvhQ6WdSquGywiuT73UA4-FdxZ7Sbanwepc4RplYGZFiTzOj_S9EI5fIKTnyoCd2GaAay6kKV3PUMCTufcYYotcj_Z&typo=1 >> > to (un)subscribe >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,2Nvp1o0BuonumzjRaAgB261x0CCbqCVu7O1v9MDVMFkEhnsyKHTSWdiz5RVuI-yKopgU8alLIHC9v1wLDPYH94HZjOYxTl2FUmzsdkTEadnS&typo=1 >> > FRIAM-COMIC >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,YLbOcA9Ds-tnle2QH8a32PjQ7NAIR-vsh3V7-HXqTzKV4PukKncRYMuEpmRjp67iN-X_yErpzaipLwaWISoACSSYk8Mt-rsnjOXWyeRFV2gvxJ0q&typo=1 >> > archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,NXJ4PVoN2eyJn6xZtIL1pM97mWi-ZIVUv0tLzz2UWJg50A0Vnm3Z8sMdhc8kirWmB4vdqOGvSO3k4NbKXdGMZYEP_cTp8bRN3Us38T4dDYc,&typo=1 >> > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> >> >> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - 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