Ukraine and Russia withdraw from each other's territory. Neither side claims victory or defeat. Ukraine *_sells_* Crimea to Russia and uses the proceeds for, admittedly partial, reconstruction. Ukraine agrees not to seek NATO membership. European countries, especially the Baltics, join Ukraine in a limited, invasion only, mutual-defense pact. Ukraine agrees to sell mineral rights to the EU. Trump is sidelined and ignored—becomes THE man with no cards.
davew On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, at 9:49 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: > > A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of Ukraine > > The Case Against Trump > Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been fighting back heroically for > three years. It is crucial to take decisive action against countries that > invade others unprovoked. A good example is the First Gulf War, when Iraq > invaded Kuwait, and the U.S. led a coalition to push Iraq out. That kind of > response helps maintain international order. > > However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor and openly aligns > himself with Putin. His stance undermines the principle of standing against > aggression and emboldens authoritarian regimes. His willingness to cozy up to > Putin is simply wrong. Period. > > The Case For Trump > Maintaining international order is important, but only if you have the power > to enforce it effectively. If you can't win a war, engaging in it is a > mistake. Consider how the U.S. aligned with Stalin in the later stages of > World War II—not because Stalin was good, but because confronting him > directly wasn’t a realistic option at the time. Putin may be an amateur > compared to Stalin, but the logic remains: if you can’t stop him, you may > have to find a way to work with him. > > Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path to pushing Russia out of > Ukraine unless the U.S. commits fully—boots on the ground. But no one in > America supports that. Given this, there’s a case for engaging with Russia > pragmatically, much like how the U.S. dealt with Stalin, to bring the war to > an end. > > Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly, without full military > commitment, has serious downsides. The war could drag on indefinitely, and if > Ukraine eventually wins, Russia would be humiliated. A humiliated > nuclear-armed Russia is a dangerous prospect. History offers a > warning—Germany’s humiliation after World War I directly contributed to the > rise of Hitler. The consequences of a humiliated Russia could be similarly > unpredictable and catastrophic. > > My Take > In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in South Africa—Nelson > Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us. But surely, with today's AI, > we could create a virtual Madiba, and he would know exactly what to do. > > On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28, Tom Johnson <jtjohnson...@gmail.com> wrote: >> So as usual: Follow the Money. >> If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare earth minerals, upon leaving >> Ukraine, where does that ore go and to whom? My bet is to some company(ies) >> that Trump et al. have interests in. >> TJ >> >> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: >>> It’s such an encapsulation of that part of the society (including t and v) >>> to think that they could “humiliate” Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a >>> conversation with toxic scum, on the relevance of reality, he was about the >>> only clean thing in the room that could be heard. >>> >>> There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think that trump can be somehow >>> managed by a canny player. That doesn’t ring correct to me, unless the >>> player has a lot of power and money, and it is the power and money that are >>> managing trump. No agreement with trump is worth the paper it is written >>> on. We all understand that he will do anything he is not stopped from >>> doing. The problem with the american presidency is that there become fewer >>> and fewer actors who can stop its occupant from doing things, in the era of >>> political parties as universalizing corrupting bodies. If this whole train >>> continues, they will eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and power enough >>> that its ability to do damage declines. But there is so much accumulated >>> right now, that they can do enormous harm before they undercut themselves. >>> >>> I am persuaded by those who opine that trump has no intention of doing >>> anything to aid Ukraine, and that the point of the performance was to put >>> up a front for not doing anything, for the same audience who interprets any >>> of that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy. If trump could extort money or >>> resource access, and then backstab in return for it, I expect he would be >>> interested in that opportunity. But not more than that. >>> >>> I also think that people are living a little bit in the past when they >>> comment that, with trump, it’s always about money. That was before the >>> first presidency, when his possibilities to exercise abusive power over >>> other people in a country with some degree of rule of law was limited, >>> relative to the amount of spending he could do (whether solvent or >>> insolvent). But the access to abusive power in the presidency, for a >>> sociopath, is on a scale not available to anybody else. If money was >>> heroin for that addiction, the power of the presidency is fentanyl, and I >>> don’t think trump is going back now. Money: fine; but that’s now the >>> second motive. >>> >>> (I think there are elements of this for Musk as well, but there is enough >>> about him that is different that I wouldn’t put him in the same category, >>> or in the same post here.) >>> >>> I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I don’t even have any >>> sophistication thinking in this sphere. But from my long distance from it, >>> I can imagine that the calculus is roughly this at the moment: It is still >>> possible that trump won’t direct the u.s. military to attack Ukraine >>> directly. The question whether it is possible comes back, entirely, to >>> what force is available to stop him from ordering it. I don’t doubt for a >>> minute that, if the EU starts to get scared, and if they have time to act >>> constructively, enough to start to give Ukraine meaningful ability to hold >>> land or push back a bit, the u.s. under trump would act as a saboteur of >>> that effort. >>> >>> If that is the correct vantage point, I would imagine that Zelenskyy’s >>> challenge is to try to orient the rest of the world into some structure >>> that will hem trump and the trumpers in as much as possible from direct >>> attack, and where possible against sabotage. (Sabotage is harder, because >>> to even find out that it is going on, you need somebody on the inside to >>> report.) If they can get some weapons out of the weapons contractors and >>> the congressmen, sure; try to do what you can. But any of that has meaning >>> only when it is in your hands and being used. Don’t put weight on anything >>> short of that. >>> >>> (I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the true problem that the current >>> condition is a WWI-type trench warfare with drones, and the prospect of >>> extending that to a point of collapse is already so bad, that it takes >>> something truly awful for that not to be the worst. I don’t see indication >>> that any good-faith actor anywhere is denying that, though I don’t think >>> saying it, alone, makes one a good-faith actor.) >>> >>> >>> I had a conversation with a friend over the weekend who is a NASA program >>> manager, and who interpreted a recent directive they had received, to >>> discontinue the use of paper straws, and replace them with plastic straws, >>> as a kickback to some petroleum company that had bribed trump. Given that >>> this is a smart person I am talking to, the quaintness of that >>> interpretation took my breath away. It seems clear beyond daylight, to me, >>> that the images of turtles with straws in their noses, and seabirds dead of >>> them, were the breakthrough that the environmental groups finally got with >>> the public, to get some action to ban that specific plastic item as one of >>> the most insidiously dangerous and cruel. The point of the paper-straw ban >>> was the point of everything with these people. Most directly, it was an >>> intent to deliver a “defeat” to the environmental groups, focusing on the >>> image that had succeeded for them precisely because it is so awful to have >>> to see more of. But more generally, this is the core of meanness. It is a >>> rage, by those who are defiled in their nature, against the existence of >>> anything that isn’t defiled. >>> >>> This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the last-century European >>> political actors: that they didn’t understand the distinction between the >>> parties and the movements. The parties wanted to control the government, >>> whereas the movements wanted to destroy the government. Public commentary >>> on this drives me nuts, because it seems to exactly repeat this error. >>> People talk about the appointments of degraded morons to agency heads as >>> being about loyalty: take somebody who couldn’t earn anything in a world of >>> merit, and put him on a plush perch that he knows he will only retain as >>> long as he can continue to curry favor. But I believe that only to about a >>> 30% level as the motive. And it is an inward-facing motive; how to keep >>> various functionaries on a leash. There is an outward-directed motive, and >>> I think that is about 70% of the drive. These people are put there, >>> because he couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the effort to eliminate >>> the notion of legitimacy from the concept of society people will adopt and >>> live within. >>> >>> The word I wanted to use for the latter, thinking over the weekend, was >>> “vesting”. It’s a bit of a bland word, but it wraps up several things that >>> otherwise I can’t encompass in one word. The cognitive concept of truth; >>> abstract notions such as justice; the society as an agreement underpinned >>> by legitimized institutions. What all these have in common is that people >>> accept restraint to uphold a prior commitment to these other things as >>> “higher” over the long run. And when the mob wants to destroy the state — >>> meaning, really to destroy that concept of society — it is this “higher” >>> that they can keep their attention fixed on, as all the other particular >>> targets (immigrants, academics, civil servants, black people, gay people, >>> etc.) get rotated in and out as opportunities arise. >>> >>> So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns out to be, over time, a loss >>> for Zelenskyy — the reality behind the literary Faustian Bargain — he may >>> not be worse off having the break occur earlier. I don’t know what it may >>> buy him to have humiliated t and v, by having the dignity to not accept >>> those terms of conversation, in terms of coalition-building with other >>> heads of state. >>> >>> >>> I do continue to wonder what China’s play in this will be. I imagine they >>> think they will have no trouble “managing” Russia into some kind of >>> continuing subordinate status, when it is alone with a gigantic land area >>> but a limited economy and population. If it were even just Russia >>> swallowing Ukraine, China might still think of that as an okay outcome. I >>> feel pretty sure they want the rare earths, in view of their relations with >>> Mongolia up to now, and the fact that the only thing protecting Taiwan is >>> that it holds the entire world’s highest technology as a trust, and >>> collapsing it would cause such a large global implosion that it would >>> destabilize China as well, for now. But they probably figure they can get >>> those from Russian control, where Russia couldn’t develop them internally >>> anyway. An actual coalition of Russia with the U.S., however, could become >>> more worrisome for China, even if the U.S. is undergoing a process of >>> self-degradation. So it is not inconceivable to me that China could want >>> some stalemate to go on a while longer, which limits the coordination of >>> the trumpers with other large actors as much as feasible. Another Faustian >>> bargain for Zelenskyy if it is offered. But maybe more predictable in the >>> short term. >>> >>> But there, too, I don’t know anything. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> >>> >>> > On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: >>> > >>> > >>> >> It's way too generous to say "Trump has a case". Trump and Vance's >>> >> "case" consists of "You should be grateful to us because we give you >>> >> money". I.e. suck up to me and I'll deign to give you more money. >>> > I don't think Trump or Vance have backed any significant support for >>> > Ukraine. The US people through our elected representatives and tax >>> > dollars *HAVE* supported Ukraine (albeit a little slowly an a little >>> > anemically and a little timidly sometimes?). Zelensky has been >>> > extravagantly and eloquently thankful to all of the above. Trump and >>> > Vance were spoiling for an opportunity to try to humiliate Zelensky in >>> > front of the cameras, so they contrived it. >>> >> Maybe someone makes the case you say is Trump's. But it's not Trump >>> >> making that case. If he sporadically vomits words that sound like that, >>> >> it's because they were put into his mouth by someone else. The question >>> >> is Who put them there? Putin? Elno? Thiel? >>> > >>> > The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was extortion. Whether Ukraine's >>> > mineral resources could or should be mortgaged to secure the financial >>> > support is one thing, but the idea that the point of the West supporting >>> > Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive Putin-led Russia is about economics >>> > completely misses the point. Zelensky is right to avoid "doing business >>> > with" anyone who is not a clear staunch ally when in this situation. >>> > >>> > Trump & Allies are clearly "War Profiteers", a fine old tradition among >>> > the industrialists and financiers of the "free world". >>> > >>> > >>> >> >>> >> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: >>> >>> Just watched a new episode where two toddlers threw their toys out of >>> >>> the cot. >>> >>> >>> >>> Zelensky makes a strong case — Putin is unreliable, having broken >>> >>> numerous agreements in the past, so any peace deal would need ironclad >>> >>> security guarantees. But lecturing Trump is hardly the way to secure a >>> >>> favorable minerals trade agreement. >>> >>> >>> >>> Trump also has a valid case — the war is stagnating, there’s no >>> >>> realistic military path to driving Russia out of Ukraine, and pursuing >>> >>> peace makes sense. But losing your temper at an international press >>> >>> conference is not the way to get there. >>> >>> >>> >>> At the end of the day, they’re all human, and it makes for great >>> >>> real-life drama. 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