Yes! But the sports betters may have an easier time of it than betting on other
things. (Though I'm guessing they bet on spreads, player stats, etc., too.)
This Kalshi market helps demonstrate (to me) how processes like instant runoff
voting are superior to deeply human-in-the-loop decision-making (e.g. regular
runoff voting):
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/yearend-top-llm
It's a popularity contest, sure. But "Style Control" well demonstrates some
biases in popularity contests:
https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/
You can get a feel for it by toggling it at the leaderboard. Do you prefer your
Robot Overloard coerce you in a verbose way? With purple prose? Or do you
prefer a dense, dry, and to the point delivery? In order for us to give this
market the benefit of the doubt and claim it composes information in a richer
way than, say, a Big5 team of consultants might, you'd have to dig into the
personality (character?) of LMSys, the leaderboard code, the demos that use
ChatBots, etc. ... i.e. the judge(s) ... much the same way an academic wants
information on the study section that'll review their application or an author
wants information on the editor(s) of a journal. With sports, it *feels* to me
less susceptible to bias. Am I rejecting thought in favor of feeling? IDK.
On a[n un]related note, I was very happy to learn that Billie Eilish actually
sings:
https://youtu.be/Vb9xSQ9XYvY?si=k4e-YaoojeZ9Q9I0
On 11/29/24 10:50, Roger Critchlow wrote:
It's funny, I just rescued part of this thread from my spam folder which had
ballooned over the last month.
So I just read this, which Eric wrote back in October:
One of the good things that Paxton emphasizes about what drives fascist movements from the ground up is the determined rejection of thought in favor of feeling. Hannah Arendt goes on at length to get the same thing across.
I envision it (with some discomfort about misfits of the metaphor) as being
like a social counterpart to berserking, or (even less apt) elephants going
into musth. It’s not even “rage” per se, but something about as destructive,
only chosen.
I see the various repubs that make communities with the dems, and speak as
if they hope this will “accomplish” some “change”. For the Bannon-followers, I
feel like I know exactly what this looks like. It is the various subcategories
of hated ones self-identifying, and sewing on their sleeves a marker of
“establishment characters”. Bannon preaches to the mob: “You see; they’re
scared! We have them on the run. If you’ll just push a little harder we can
corner them, and we’ll give them the beating of their lives. Imagine how
powerful you will feel. They’ll want you to stop, and they won’t be faking it,
but they won’t be able to make you stop. Won’t that be the best feeling you
ever had? You’ll be able to feel, finally, that you actually exist.” (Bannon
doesn’t put in the final line; I put that in.)
And it reminded me of things I've been thinking about while watching ads for sports betting during NFL
games. There's this recent group of ads about "feeding your hunches",
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA6gw3Lxjjg <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA6gw3Lxjjg>, which
end with "make every moment more."
It's an appeal to make your actions significant, for a particularly cheap form
of significance. Googling around this turned up a lot of slick tech for
personalising sports betting ads, too.
-- rec --
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ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
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