The Case for Trump I'm not suggesting that Trump is a model leader; he has many moral shortcomings. And yes, if we view the U.S. President as the de facto leader of the West, it's fair to ask: Can’t we do better? I also won’t debate whether someone like Harris might make a better president. My point is this: If Trump is elected, might there be areas where his unique style could actually make him an effective leader?
One thing Trump can do is negotiate. As a potential leader of the West, there are benefits he could bring in negotiating with adversaries, including BRICS countries. Let me explain using an analogy: the character James Dean played in Rebel Without a Cause. In a game of chicken, Dean's character pretended to be drunk, making his opponent believe he was reckless—eventually causing them to back down. Trump has a history of employing similar tactics. For instance, when building in New York, he once proposed a design that violated height limits. When this was denied, he proposed a much uglier building that followed the code. Ultimately, he got approval to build his original design, with the height exemption he wanted. Whether or not he would have gone through with his threat is unclear, but he got what he wanted by throwing a calculated tantrum. In the same way, Trump's current claims about what he would do internationally could simply be part of his proven negotiation tactics. World leaders see him as “reckless” in the same way James Dean’s opponents did, making them reconsider their own moves. Ultimately, Trump may be an unconventional choice, but he is a skilled negotiator—one who could, in his own way, secure some advantageous outcomes for the West. On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 13:07, Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: > The newspapers, and any number of writers, do a good job spelling all this > out. > > I have this frustrated feeling that doing this misses the point that is > driving the dynamic. > > One of the good things that Paxton emphasizes about what drives fascist > movements from the ground up is the determined rejection of thought in > favor of feeling. Hannah Arendt goes on at length to get the same thing > across. > > I envision it (with some discomfort about misfits of the metaphor) as > being like a social counterpart to berserking, or (even less apt) elephants > going into musth. It’s not even “rage” per se, but something about as > destructive, only chosen. > > I see the various repubs that make communities with the dems, and speak as > if they hope this will “accomplish” some “change”. For the > Bannon-followers, I feel like I know exactly what this looks like. It is > the various subcategories of hated ones self-identifying, and sewing on > their sleeves a marker of “establishment characters”. Bannon preaches to > the mob: “You see; they’re scared! We have them on the run. If you’ll > just push a little harder we can corner them, and we’ll give them the > beating of their lives. Imagine how powerful you will feel. They’ll want > you to stop, and they won’t be faking it, but they won’t be able to make > you stop. Won’t that be the best feeling you ever had? You’ll be able to > feel, finally, that you actually exist.” (Bannon doesn’t put in the final > line; I put that in.) > > > I guess I don’t want to argue against the things people are trying to do > (Michael Luttig, various Cheneys, and whoever). The voting block that can > cause the calamity is certainly a coalition of non-identical groups. If we > think there are categories of Spontaneous Racists and Stimulated Racists > (to borrow a term from spectroscopy), the part of the voting bloc that is > made up of the spontaneous ones may not be all that large; maybe 20%? Not > as large as the evangelicals (35–40%?, with some overlap). There > presumably are some genuinely out-to-lunch types, and maybe one can imagine > that talking has some place with them, which could be enough to move the > margin of this winner-take-all event we are stuck with. And then the ones > that can think enough to be strategically greedy or hoarding, but not > circumspect enough to have every cared or understood how the society they > suck from actually functions. _Maybe_ talking could have some effect with > them. > > > I have thought, too, since some NYT article by a guy from Bucks county PA > going home, and thinking that the trump voters actively wanted “the trump > vibe; the meanness, bullying and name-calling, etc.” that this is an > expression of a certain component of nihilism. > > Whoever wrote the screenplay for Apocalypse Now was very good. Kurtz’s > line in one of the soliloquays: > > “Have you ever wondered what it would be like to be completely free? Free > from the judgments of others; even of yourself?” > > There is a core of nihilism in that freedom. What would it feel like to > go punch somebody for no particular reason, except that I felt like it? > Burn whatever some people mean by “the bonds of human affection” that > “include us in humanity”. Yes, I sort of understand (and this probably is > important) that whoever I hit will now know he has to fear me, and he may > even dislike or hate me, and it may be irreversible. But if he can’t do > anything to me, why do I care? In fact, if he wants to and still can’t, > even better: that will give me that experience of power that I imagine must > be so nice to feel, but that if it is, I certainly don’t feel now. > > It’s not as simple a category as all that, because they are willing to do > this only if they believe they are members in the mob. Whether that’s > community or just a release from the requirements of either responsibility > or courage I can’t say. > > > But I do think that, in the U.S., a crucial conversion that Arendt > articulates, from a mere mass into a mob, has now been achieved, and the > mob is awake and self-aware as a mob. It took a sociopath to go charging > out across the minefield that normal people are too chicken to venture > into, to show how far out the actual shooting-boundary is, beyond where > they had drawn back before. But now that the boundary has been identified, > that’s public information, and the others don’t need to be sociopaths to > use it. It changes the problem, because there are a lot more of them than > of the true sociopaths. > > > I agree, we would like to first get through the next week without an acute > disaster. But the system organization has passed through a re-arrangement > by now. I would like to know what a program looks like to reverse that, > without having to go through the whole Hodgkin-Huxley circuit of the > society’s destroying itself before there is enough exhaustion to try for a > reset. Since, under the conditions that are likely by that time, it’s not > clear what kind of “reset” might even be available. > > Eric > > > > > > > On Oct 31, 2024, at 4:59 AM, Russ Abbott <russ.abb...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > To help prevent such a disaster, let's do our best to help people > imagine what the world would look like if Trump wins. > > > > For example, Trump has said that one of his priorities would be to throw > off the occupying army of invading immigrants and criminals. Ask people to > think about how this occupying force is currently ruining people's lives. I > suspect that very few people have any experience of such a noxious invading > force. Most people find their lives relatively peaceful. But if Trump > begins to implement his plan to throw off this occupying force, the streets > would be full of armed deportation agents chasing down the evil occupying > forces. Gunfights would erupt between the deportation agents and immigrants > running for their lives. Many of us would be caught in the crossfire--or > holed up at home trying to avoid the bullets. Ask people to imagine such a > world and to compare it to the relatively peaceful world we now occupy. Ask > them if that is really what we want and if that is what we will be voting > for next Tuesday. > > > > -- Russ Abbott > > Professor Emeritus, Computer Science > > California State University, Los Angeles > > > > > > On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 11:48 PM Jochen Fromm <j...@cas-group.net> > wrote: > > Here in Europe most people are indeed worried that the candidate who is > a convicted felon and wears orange makeup will become president again. Have > his fans all forgotten he mainly played golf, praised dictators and created > tax cuts for the superrich? But there is also a bit of hope that a woman > will stop him this time. > > > > A hundred years ago there was already a group in America that hated > Blacks and immigrants. As Timothy Egan writes in his book "A Fever in the > Heartland: The Ku Klux Klan's Plot to Take Over America, and the Woman Who > Stopped Them" one of the Ku Klux Klan leaders was a charismatic charlatan > named D.C. Stephenson. He was eventually brought down by a woman, Madge > Oberholtzer, who would reveal his cruelties, and whose testimony stopped > the Klan. When Europe fell into darkness, America was able to stop the con > man. I hope it can do it again. > > > https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/ > > > > -J. > > > > > > -------- Original message -------- > > From: Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com> > > Date: 10/30/24 10:54 PM (GMT+01:00) > > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Evolutionary transitions between egalitarian and > despotic societies > > > > Hi, Jochen, > > > > Not sarcastic. It was to show the exploratory nature of such models. > I do believe that the most mysterious feature of charisma is the behavior > of the charasmees. However this election turns out, almost half the > country is about to willingly offer up it's political autonomy to a > potential dictator. Whatever my faults, I try, try, TRY not to do > sarcasm. I do wonder if we could build models that explore under what > circumstances it is better for everybody to do SOMETHING then to take the > time to pool information and do the right thing. > > > > In general evolutionary history has no actual power to constrain our > present behavior. Our behavior is constrainted by present events and > present behavioral repertoire. > > > > Nick > > > > On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 2:37 PM Jochen Fromm <j...@cas-group.net> wrote: > > In her book "The Social Instinct" Nichola Raihani mentions in chapter 17 > the article "An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from > egalitarianism to leadership and despotism" from Simon T. Powers as a model > how despotic regimes and dominance hierarchies have evolved in early human > societies. > > https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349 > > > > It reminds me of our recent discussion triggered by Nick's (sarcastic?) > proposal to explain parts of the MAGA movement in terms of evolutionary > psychology. Simon T. Powers is an interdisciplinary researcher working at > the University of Sterling > > https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555 > > > > A more recent article from him about "Modelling transitions between > egalitarian, dynamic leader and absolutist power structures" can be found > here > > https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639 > > > > -J. > > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > > > > -- > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology > > Clark University > > nthomp...@clarku.edu > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,sBiGhm4GeuEKEc6z5xiA8CzwCG1thCl6P_AjSF-iz9mrBmNJLk8pAyH_hVP16UE9P_ab04-w7Ew2H9s-PSppD6MMXoj24_V8LDe_Wl-17YM,&typo=1 > > to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,eXOJE6YpC_NGwrBTh_7_tCU6klCRKnVaUYq8CRGaHB5p5t_0YhLTnsx26Apc7-Nq6vzrCTsZxlMnSnMTC-g2IUn6mAOAZY6IUVjWE1QRKIFIRfE,&typo=1 > > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,V1I4xsf7uAmtB9HpvGHDM2tnYOcSklHXGeQ8pgZKxpWy8qHAZJFjGhdV_Nb2vC7cPCJYmptUThS900SppXEQHbUlVFfHxTojbTCh14-c5ZzJmouC&typo=1 > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,xjO0iUE-fNLKpPBqSs1cXLSiTtdX3jEj0dSObiTHKHslWaRwv2HUA8ZmhCpka09ZPyN3i2iquLBoUcybJKy1mRWnz-XMPAZghbwR9XIPaHnhykzI&typo=1 > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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