I'm way behind. Wondering why anyone is still talking about the "lack of predictability" from complex systems. I prefer thinking about the opening afforded to the "adjacent possible".
On Fri, Jun 2, 2023 at 6:19 AM Prof David West <profw...@fastmail.fm> wrote: > I have just started reading *The Earth Transformed* by Peter Frankorian. > It seems to have some relevance to this discussion as one of its themese is > how multiple climate change events in the past shaped human adaptation and > evolution. Might provide some interesting ground for what kind of changes > might result from current crises. Big caveat, of course, is the lack of > predictability when it comes to complex systems > > davew > > > On Wed, May 31, 2023, at 9:02 PM, David Eric Smith wrote: > > Yeah. It’s a good objection, because I don’t know either. > > > > I know what sources I am feeding off of. They are all this > > popular-science writing, and who knows its status; maybe it becomes the > > urban legend of “intellectual” spectators? > > > > There is the whole follow-on from the Siberian silver foxes, and the > > stylized facts of piebald coloring, round ears, and chattiness as the > > mark of epigenetically altered hormonal profiles among domesticates. > > Not sure how you do that with primates that already have short ears and > > limited hair, but there’s always the chattiness. > > > > Some of it, I think, came from reading Barry Lopez’s book Of Wolves and > > Men as a young kid (a book that at the time, I figured was just a > > surplus on the used-book tables, but which I have seen referred to > > repeatedly over the years), and then some decades later, some other > > book-length thing about social intelligence among dog breeds and their > > relations to wolves. The broad thesis being that adult wolves don’t > > have a sense of humor. People see wolf pups that look like dog pups > > and think “I’ll raise one of those”, and then suddenly the transition > > to adulthood happens, and all this “relation” they thought they had > > vanishes as the wolf becomes the adult wild animal, and they realize > > they are in completely over their heads. > > > > Factoid upon factoid, somewhere in this I fit the thing my boss > > mentioned a couple of years ago, about a Nature (?) article reporting > > that one of the mutations systematically separating dogs from the grey > > wolf was in the gene that is cognate to the one that mutates to cause > > Williams Syndrome in people. I mentioned that on the list maybe a year > > ago, but have’t gone to find the link myself. > > > > The thing about vigilance as an important defining dimension of the > > PTSD phenotype comes from the Jonathan Shay book I mentioned, and > > probably also Tim OBrien’s The Things They Carried, though not > > emphasized there the same way in its own name. Seems to correlate with > > being surprisingly strong while being surprisingly skinny and not > > needing to eat much (or having an interest I eating much), and with a > > portfolio of health problems that shorten lifespan. Shay thinks that > > hypervigilance, as a requirement for survival, is one of the drivers of > > PTSD and not only a symptom; the other major one being betrayal within > > what was supposed to have functioned as the social in-group and support > > structure. That was the connection to the SFI talk on “Living with > > Distrust” as a locked-in low-benefit social state (anthropological > > study of a small village I Romania). > > > > Are wild animals like that? I do have that impression, with about as > > much depth as my other impressions. Getting close to a wild fox seems > > very very hard. Raccoons too. I think of big male domestic cats as > > being pretty menacing (having been attacked by one in the dark one > > time), but the reputation is that faced with a fox or a raccoon, they > > don’t have a chance of surviving. Makes me imagine that bobcats look > > like slightly enlarged big domestic cats, but probably aren’t like them > > very much at all. > > > > I was having this discussion with someone once, sitting outside a small > > artificial lake in a little forest glen, watching the birds fight > > continuously with each other in every pairing over territory. Thinking > > “These animals are really willing to make an effort.” > > > > Eric > > > > > > > >> On May 30, 2023, at 4:27 PM, glen <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > >> "Somehow not the domain of peace and spirituality that I think > first-worlders like to project onto first-nationers, and which might even > be true for the first-nationers, since they are also from a milder time by > a lot than a large extinction." > >> > >> IDK, man. Are wild animals different from us in any significant way? > Are they actually never lazy, never unvigilant, etc? Or, perhaps, is the > attribution of vigilance (and hence never unvigilance) an illusion born of > othering? A standard whipping post for me is this "Are you a cat person or > a dog person" cocktail party ice breaker. Admitting the false dichotomy, > dog people tend to think of cats as non-social, selfish, blahblah. Cat > people tend to think of dogs as slobbery, vapid, etc. It's complete > nonsense born of arbitrary delusions. > >> > >> But of course, there is something to be said of the built environment. > It would be difficult for a human reared in a city to navigate the > Mongolian desert. But is that difference any greater than plopping a city > dweller 13,000 years in the past? Are office or political games > significantly different from the "games" wild babies play under the > vigilant eye of their den mother? Yeah, I know. I'm putting too much weight > on "significant". Obviously, everything's different from everything else. > (I regret not being able to engage more with Jon's exploration of Deleuze.) > But my conservatism tells me that objective othering would rely solely on > coherent traits, fingers vs. claws, hair vs. fur, cortex or no cortex. A > human now would be insignificantly different from a human then. If the > apocalypse doesn't transform us into something other than human, whatever > is rebuilt will be strikingly similar to what we have now. > >> > >> > >> On 5/28/23 11:29, David Eric Smith wrote: > >>> I’m not sure elitist, Steve, > >>> That’s one bad habit that I don’t think they have. > >>> More along the line, I suspect, of “out of ordinary people who mostly > get mowed down, here and there will be some pockets that started to pay > attention and got lucky enough to have time to make a culture of it, of > sorts” > >>> Wes Jackson likes the term “saving remnant”. > >>> I happen to be in Sweden just now, and it has me thinking about sci-fi > futures, ad also Nietzsche’s “last man” etc. > >>> Also on this theme is the very interesting SFI lecture “living with > distrust”, which signals things I have seen (Ernst Fehr?) and others say > about the Ache and Machiguenga and other groups. > >>> What do I think the saving remnant will be? I imagine people who lost > all the epigenetic marks associated with domestication, and took on hormone > profiles more like chimps. Or “born this way” to PTSD. > >>> Take any wild animal, and contemplate just how _different_ they are > from us. Never lazy. Never un-vigilant. Or read Jonathan Shay’s Achilles > in Vietnam. > >>> Suppose all the people who remain have survived only because they are > that. Unwind not only the past 70 years of developed-world tranquility, > but the history of human domestication since at least the younger dryas. > Maybe a lot longer ago than that. > >>> What is it like to have your Time Machine and go spend a weekend with > those guys in their home? Jared Diamond would be jealous. Somehow not the > domain of peace and spirituality that I think first-worlders like to > project onto first-nationers, and which might even be true for the > first-nationers, since they are also from a milder time by a lot than a > large extinction. > >>> I wish I had the imagination to be interesting. It would be > invigorating to read someone who could really imagine a different world, > and a different us, and take you there in some convincing way. > >>> Eric > >>>> On May 28, 2023, at 6:55 PM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > >>>> > >>>> Eric - > >>>> > >>>> Thanks for passing this link around here. I suspect most here have > the background to appreciate/parse this < insert Steve Martin's "hear me > now and believe me later" SNL skit> but maybe not an "affordance to know" > the more acute implications of it. > >>>> > >>>> One of the things I find (most) interesting in the RGND rhetoric is > their (appropriate) invocation of Complex Systems ideas as well as the > convergence of human consciousness (mostly from a neuroscience perspective) > and the complex systems which are the techno-social-economic systems that > are our energo-materio culture which is the engine that is spinning the > earth-systems out of the orbits they were in pre-anthropocene (150 or 15000 > years?) > >>>> > >>>> I may be reading them wrong, but this feels like "yet another" > elitist trope, this time on (nanotech?) steroids: > >>>> > >>>> /In short, we think it’s probable that MTI civilization will > collapse catastrophically but that pockets of people with a rising level of > consciousness and awareness of our eco-predicament will survive and act as > the seeders of a new world./// > >>>> > >>>> I particularly appreciated your pithy observation: > >>>> > >>>> /But here, we can maybe somehow combine the capitalists and the > GNDers. The concentration in the rate and provision of services, and of > the ownership of the proceeds by whoever the rulers turn out to be, leaves > the rest of us free to die off in peace, and not carry on the guilt of > being ecological criminals. It’s a win-win./ > >>>> > >>>> / > >>>> / > >>>> > >>>> Thanks to Sabine (as Cassandra) and Eric and Marcus for raising this > to my attention... queing it up to provide background for my read lead me > to her Collective Stupidity episode < > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25kqobiv4ng>. > >>>> > >>>> I am left wondering if/how LLMs reflect/relate to Wisdom/Stupidity of > Crowds? Seems like LLMs are literally the encapsulation of collective > knowledge. > >>>> > >>>> Sabine's invocation of "Information Cascades" was interesting in > contrast with entrainment and canalization. Will LLMs in some way help us > avoid these short-circuits/shunts? Or aggravate them? > >>>> > >>>> - Steve > >>>> > >>>> On 5/28/23 2:46 AM, David Eric Smith wrote: > >>>>> This comment leads to an interesting angle that I haven’t heard. > >>>>> Bill Rees, whom you can find here: > >>>>> <d8f080_78c1ab7b00b045ff9bbc01a273b00173~mv2.jpg> > >>>>> Home | The REAL Green New Deal Project < > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2f&c=E,1,s4xLfGynLIjkrUt9NbN7gTjzG9OOoaJe64vBX3p4819H6jFz9AJSSe-qv9yDN4qwXF8gSayAREexT0axFnHBthp_EmNYm91Bl5Edsist24GG&typo=1 > > > >>>>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2frealgnd.org&c=E,1,o-jD2Pd3Y2XABKHYvdjInzR4x3ep6uYbwcsXC-DFCaj9q_hjiE7VWqV3KWC2P3ekWNDW6V-PTSH_3BQuFildW1lxnqFkgyRufuDcSLp4&typo=1 > < > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2f&c=E,1,mLU-zLi9KLRqdV1LCSsLf4xAqRPWhhLSvzK0ajNxs-Bl31f_tDo3AuTO8FftJArhBwcEpVAtKd58f8Nn8HWN8QWG-poN1K4CsHllfzctVyYuePFkCMo,&typo=1 > > > >>>>> > >>>>> < > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.realgnd.org%2f&c=E,1,ui2uypSQ13uMOEz7hzM4YulUakJ2dduLZEW4fMauG5gh85fLSDmPC9mu3saCYT5TA1zSp3f4E7hrdi7Iu-Yxbt88L44PzeI9TxTtDQBN6mNsS-h87nJxhCE,&typo=1 > > > >>>>> writes numerous papers about how 90% of us need to die, or that this > is just what will happen whether we articulate such a need or not. I won’t > go so far as to say that Rees “wants” 90% of us to die (see the smiling > grandfatherly bearded ecologist photo in the pages), but after a long life > of writing Jeremiads and not seeing the world change its ways, he seems so > defeated by frustration that I read in him a deep and now constitutive > misanthropy. > >>>>> > >>>>> (btw: the Real GND website is best read while listening to Sabine > Hossenfelder’s song My Name is Cassandra, Prophet of the Dark. Thanks > Marcus for making me aware of her oeuvre, I had never noticed it.) > >>>>> > >>>>> Usually, the problem with the bait-and-switch of new technologies is > “look, it will save so much labor we will all have leisure to be creative > while still having comfortable levels of consumption”, when what actually > happens is classic Marx: the few who can enclose the new services, either > because they are exclusive or just through market-gravitational effects, > now own an even larger sector of all income, and the expanding remnant is > made increasingly desperate. > >>>>> > >>>>> But here, we can maybe somehow combine the capitalists and the > GNDers. The concentration in the rate and provision of services, and of > the ownership of the proceeds by whoever the rulers turn out to be, leaves > the rest of us free to die off in peace, and not carry on the guilt of > being ecological criminals. It’s a win-win. > >>>>> > >>>>> I worry that that story is probably incomplete, and maybe thereby > wrong. The concentrating advantage of advanced autocomplete services might > only be a transient while our current stock of primary knowledge is > “enough” and “not fully mined”. Maybe all the inefficient activity of > ordinary people is somehow a diffuse source that actually expands the > primary base. Certainly my impression of ecological organizations is that, > below any small population of charismatic megafauna, there is a whole > pyramid that goes down to an astonishing number of nitrogen-fixer bacteria. > >>>>> > >>>>> But I don’t know, what organizations are necessary by physical, > mathematical, and biological laws, and which might be possible that we just > haven’t ever seen before. > >>>>> > >>>>> Eric > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>>> On May 28, 2023, at 7:27 AM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> > wrote: > >>>>>> > >>>>>> Looking at the recent rapid release of open source LLM systems like > Falcon and Mosaic ML, Llama, etc. there is more going-on than titans like > Microsoft, and Google battling it out with giant closed systems. These are > human know-how crystalized into open-source deliverables. Why not share > knowledge representations in this way? Consider the cost and time that > goes into medical or legal training. Sure the energy requirements of > digital systems are high, but so are the energy expenditures of a planet > full of humans. > >>>>>> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > >>>>>> *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Steve Smith < > sasm...@swcp.com> > >>>>>> *Sent:*Friday, May 26, 2023 2:06 PM > >>>>>> *To:*friam@redfish.com<friam@redfish.com> > >>>>>> *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] crackpots and privilege > >>>>>> > >>>>>>> My grandsons' girlfriends (twenty-somethings) say that they think > babies are disgusting. I hope they change their minds. In any case, what > does a shortage of babies have to do with AI? > >>>>>> Babies *are* (can be) disgusting, but same for puppies, kitties, > and garden-soil from the right (wrong) perspective! > >>>>>> Maybe the point is "nobody left for the AI overlords to lord over" ? > >>>>>> I think the key is "existential threat"... I didn't look for > Schmidt's statement anywhere, so I'm just speculating that maybe he's doing > a mild echo of Musk's idea that a collapsing (first) world population is > somehow a *bigger* existential threat? > >>>>>> With my techhead hat on I am inclined to imagine that AI will help > me (well, not ME anymore, but people vaguely like who I once thought I was > or wanted to be) solve micro-techonomic problems like the ones that lead to > Teflon(tm) and Velcro(tm) and higher density/faster-charge EV batteries, > and higher density/dynamic range pixel-displays, and neural lace to wire > (grow?) into my brain/ganglia, and microbes that can convert moon/mars-dust > to Soylent/Huel/Water/??? etc. > >>>>>> My PsychoHistory hatted self (Asimov - Foundation < > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)>and > thenon-fictional variant < > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory#:~:text=Psychohistory%20is%20an%20amalgam%20of,stated%20intention%20and%20actual%20behavior.>) > is inclined to imagine that AI *can* help with the "big problems", the ones > nominally too large, too interdisciplinarian, too obtuse, too "wycked" (In > Complexity Science jargon), possibly too counter-intuitive for most (any?) > human or group of humans to grasp. > >>>>>> My Ned Ludd (very tight by definition?) hat has me thinking more > down the rabbit holes of worst-case scenarios where all the arrogant, > narcissistic @$$h0ii3z of the world (starting at the top with those whose > names start with Pu Tr Be Zu Mu(r/s) Ne De ... and staggering down the > hierarchy of potency and scope to most of us here most of the time) think > they "know what is best" and put their resources to using the AI lever to > "make it so"... > >>>>>> Even (especially) me, I constantly imagine that "if they made ME > King" (or to the point, if *I* was the/wormtongue/in the AI Overlord's ear) > that I would "make the world safe and happy for everyone, ever after with > no unintended consequences or unpleasant side effects". > >>>>>> One *might* guess that the smartest thinkers in the most grounded, > thoughtful, gentle think-tanks (e.g. in a Tibetan Lamasary or the "Club of > Rome" or SIPRI or CESR or the Justice League of America or the people who > task "jewish space lasers" or ??? ) would be practicing their AI-whispering > skills right now. Maybe tasking Marcus' Quantum Computer with "the hard > problem of universal consciousness"? > >>>>>> > >>>>>> An up-to-date version of Asimov's9 Billion Names of God < > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nine_Billion_Names_of_God>? > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> --- > >>>>>>> Frank C. Wimberly > >>>>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > >>>>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> 505 670-9918 > >>>>>>> Santa Fe, NM > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> On Thu, May 25, 2023, 12:48 PM Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org > <mailto:r...@elf.org>> wrote: > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> Google news decided to surface an article from Fortune today. > It's headlined "Society's refusal to have enough babies is what will save > it from the existential threat of A. I., Eric Schmidt says". The headline > is accompanied by a very serious head shot of Eric. Nice try, Google, but > you're not sucking me down that rabbit hole. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> Meanwhile, someone apparently read my mind about the > rationality of disaster prepping and wrote an epic novel about it 40 years > ago in Catalan. The Garden of the Seven Twilights by Miquel de Palol is > available in English translation and as an ebook > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fonoverdrive.com&c=E,1,i24jZ6qaXt_S4iwj4KlMCQL6JG0XDon8-oMTJAP7ZXZqRuQYl4sOgliRqIdLRRoLtoiRQ33fBCUhyBXnVUXfLmSYt7wqI61-Pu3hh6TNpJiYDl91xrw,&typo=1 > < > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2foverdrive.com&c=E,1,qiLuQHPdYM-73PUnxLjrSTzI76V8rfL6yb0_zHcdufFpFa1_kCTZkOyfYIh_N_0ysaWtjxXmwlL7kj8mmwGK2wfSP_01M-8QKT_yUEwBhHUL1Wuk-x_ACQBsspQ,&typo=1>at > your local library. The narrator crosses refugee swamped Barcelona to > check on his mom and gets sent off by her to a McMansion'ed medieval > monastery high in the Pyrenees where the elite are amusing themselves with > stories while awaiting the resolution of the first war of entertainment. > Lots of stories about themselves and their friends and acquaintances. > >>>>>>> > >> > >> -- > >> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ > >> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,P5lsJHS8pxCFL0D21L5NzikR5QLjsjfH7FYTAy9Ssx4g0syaUDU8s2wD66gLAP_E2kOW3g1m9Pdi_sCogxxlFBYRbe4cAUMq8_attORbYBxjFdyClw,,&typo=1 > >> to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,7Vl6_FysN6huZwx0VOLwm3gozb9Sve8J8Vx8kDlXU_9S4vr2jdFCmIe5XqLGXOWUzbscufYKGfIxyj2YDfdvZQiWNy6tT9PXbTcm8JCwwp5vOoco_MKLCmq6JOGT&typo=1 > >> FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,zwSy1xCLLhhpVvdXfLUUrFo6zZXv8vRzZ09bWnJ4UloBhwKr1Km5L3xf_lro3YO0iuPqNOsUqXAfNxr47uCW1nHt6naevBAty6nljgH0d0TwfA,,&typo=1 > >> archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,Z8_lhwKfx1t3zcL79Ci2A-ls8j1laUBW9mpxtkC_icg0eU9NsivUWMkN6Oe8Wa00j9kvP6BDxhZy8e3ipt5TndrMkaT1eJlZboiruuH1VPcZxNDsIw,,&typo=1 > >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA mobile: (303) 859-5609
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
