I did a calculation based on a steady growth rate followed by extinction and anthropic reasoning (aka as the "doomsday argument"), and came up with a 50% chance of population collapse by 2100. This was based on 2005 population figures. See appendix B of my book "Theory of Nothing". I haven't bothered publishing that study elsewhere.
Of course - the steady growth rate assumption is extreme. We know that the population growth rate is decreasing, with the inflection point a couple of decades ago. On current demographics, the earth's population will peak around 2070, and then go into a bit of decline, with some countries such as China going into reverse considerably sooner (eg I believe 2030s is the current prediction for China to start having a declining population). Natural population decline due to declining fertility is much preferable to a hard extinction extinction, of course, particular on a century timescale. So we should live with the fact that we may not have any grandchildren/great grandchildren whatever your stage of life is. I'm already comfortable with that - I doubt I'll have any grandchildren :). On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 03:10:45PM -0700, Gillian Densmore wrote: > WTF, how are they coming up with these numbers? I know it sucks a whales > ****** > these days to make friends. Much less a GF (or BF). But something aint adding > up here. Did they ask both people in the relationship? > > On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 3:04 PM Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > > > In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of 5 > variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL colleague > in > 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc observation that among > the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person or > other vernacular ideas of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them > involved a sooner-rather-than-later population collapse. > > To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly > and > the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the > quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting > (but unsurprising) qualitative result? > > For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with > yourself: > > https://insightmaker.com/insight/2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/ > The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation > > FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission > to > a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd followed > his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by hindsight) > helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill > baby drill, burn baby burn!" > > And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to > Growth > project/idea/model/results: > > > [cid] > > Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual) > represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates. > > The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions > anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends, whatever > policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a much > trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of us share > unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue > conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one > sister > which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself. Each of my > 2 > have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have chosen to be > childless. Most of my peers who were from large sibling groups have at > best a replacement cohort among their children and nieces/nephews which > are > headed toward a NPG in the following generation. > > My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I > need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents > don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that, > then > it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to leave > the > planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated to > be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges the very > structure > /concept of the World3 SD model! > > Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might > be > on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not until we > pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the non-linear > effects > of possible/likely runaway global warming or species collapse. > > [467px-World_population_] > > > On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote: > > Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die > https://www.realgnd.org/people > (or a position paper somewhere in their writings). > > On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and > BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard. > > I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about > their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are > committed, good people. > > But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under > decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to > forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only > truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, > then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay > focused on the task. > > I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid > numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before. > > Eric > > > > On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz > <g...@naturesvisualarts.com> wrote: > > A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe > that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. > I lean only slightly toward the latter. > > On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly > <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing > ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal? > > On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <geprope...@gmail.com> > wrote: > We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop > constructing people. >8^D > > On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. > Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I > assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their > attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of > time. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu > <mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote: > > I think the keyword was young. > > You can do that if the old men are all married to young > women. > > > On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson > <thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > > > Last time I checked, the average number of attached > males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, > females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached. > > > > Sent from my Dumb Phone > > > > Begin forwarded message: > > > > From: The Hill <theh...@email.thehill.com > <mailto:theh...@email.thehill.com>> > > Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST > > To: nthomp...@clarku.edu <mailto:nthomp...@clarku.edu> > > Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. > Most young women are not. > > Reply-To: emailt...@thehill.com > <mailto:emailt...@thehill.com> > > > > > > View Online > > > > > > > > > > > > Most young men are single. Most young women are not. > > More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly > twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the > social, romantic and sexual life of the American male. > > > > Read the full story here. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Manage Subscriptions | Sign Up for Other Newsletters | > Unsubscribe > > > > 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 > > > > Copyright © 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | Privacy > Policy | Terms of Use > > > > To ensure you receive these emails in the future, > please add > > theh...@email.thehill.com > <mailto:theh...@email.thehill.com> to your address book, contacts or safe > senders list. > > If you believe this has been sent to you in error, > please safely unsubscribe. > > -- > ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > -- > Frank Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > 505 670-9918 > > Research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,ZhiIWlMw1mgxgv4ENlRIzwXDNqK9BEpMtjOD2JTJXOGVKjTuJdVkAnedajyZirHGAi9gL-6NIHGZx-tcyHhV0UEZyyaj3ibwUxM9_0BCK-6o2Ak,&typo=1 > to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,AAfBBp4dejU1uIoupaLmqEf5GR5ZQdPJudM-mxv0iFtQrwuFKZa8tfI9zKH2YmQyaBNCdL22pnV4fMi4iupFxC31suRZ3rcDDsY6hP64mfzw73dSCj6VGV5ZPoE0&typo=1 > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,EN7xslIKPCpT6dYpD_tst8wGmwRHKJedUMFd0fNDjN_nCwALh9BuTwa-9FquPSkYBgOV-661rPGZCGa6x7KPDnyX7mxYNrPNqRegN6mh6kYikkVfWDg,&typo=1 > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,_Zz1au4ID3Z0lXcvmobNtG0n8KhdQNLfqS5wat8_BG5nxRnmjveSmWceqX1I5GBZRQ1HNsRY3jJFZU1UN6fazZrfmFgMPCXCtGHeHe1zbfAQZZuTQA,,&typo=1 > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https:// > bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/ > friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . 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