>For people it’s somewhere in the 70-80 ... As I approach 80 I'm not happy about this. I read or heard that a person over 80 has about a 0.3 probability of dying each year. I calculated, possibly using incorrect assumptions, that that means that the conditional probability of living to 90 given that you've lived to 80 is 0.02.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Tue, Jan 3, 2023, 5:14 PM glen <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: > Interesting paper. I'll have to read it more closely. But it doesn't > strike me that they address *premature* mortality, whatever that is. I > can't help but get a Theseus' Ship vibe. Even if the canalizing risks > (welding, sky diving, cholesterol, dehydration, etc.) are all hammered > down, I'd expect the noise to overwhelm the signal as the focus tightens. > Anyway, I'll try to read this over the next few days. Thanks. > > > On 1/3/23 12:31, David Eric Smith wrote: > > Long a favorite topic of mine. > > > > Let me send you a link; almost-surely not the best, but done with ~1min > of google searching images: > > > https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233384 > <https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233384 > > > > See the 5th figure for actual data, rather than models. > > > > But my understanding is that Gompertz mortality statistics are > unbelievably universal across metazoans. The parameters can be shifted by > lots of factors, but the functional form (which takes only a couple of > parameters) is absurdly more robust than one would expect given all that > varies. > > > > Anyway, to the extent that there is Gompertz mortality, there is a > natural associated age for age-associated-death. For people it’s somewhere > in the 70-80 range, and I think there can be as much as a 10-year > difference across different world gene pools (Japanese being at the upper > end, and maybe some other group in Central Asia east of the Caucasus; I > forget). > > > > A thing I remember being told by a guy who does this kind of work, there > seem to be two modes between development-linked diseases (think, childhood > leukemias), and age-associated diseases. We have made remarkable progress > on many of the former, and very little on many of the latter. Also (and I > got this from researchers at Einstein college in Yeshiva some years ago, or > from a stack of their papers), if one avoids rather specific risk factors, > like welding or smoking for lung cancers, or dioxin exposures for male > breast cancers or the like, the leading predictor for most of the old-age > diseases is just your age. So it has (to me) the look of what Holmse’s > Wonderful One-Hoss Shay would be if redone with Poisson statistics, to > become a minimum-information process. The nail that stuck up got hammered > down (extra resources for any disease that becomes visible to selection) > that now all the nails are at about the same height, and there is some kind > of ambivalence frontier. > > > > My own anecdotal experience suggests that my previous paragraphs can’t > possibly be right, since there clearly are common and rare diseases of the > old. But I didn’t make this stuff up, and got it from some serious > literature. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Eric > > > > > > > >> On Jan 3, 2023, at 1:01 PM, glen <geprope...@gmail.com <mailto: > geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: > >> > >> ">144 mmol/l with 21% elevated risk of premature mortality". My last > test a week ago showed 144! Whew! I guess I have a normal risk for > premature mortality. 8^D > >> > >> The concept of "premature death" is flat out ridiculous. But our > inability to well-define it raises some interesting questions. > >> > >> • deprivation (by the dead, by the rest of us) - is the death of > Ramanujan at 32 *more* premature than the death of some rando at 32? > >> • life expectancy seems like yet another instance of people not > understanding statistics > >> • quality of life - is the death of a 20 year old born into and likely > to live in poverty *as* premature as the death of a 20 year old born with a > silver spoon? > >> • natural selection - is it premature for a 35 year old who's bred, > say, 10 children to die? > >> · or is it premature for them to die before their children have > children? I.e. is being a grandparent a necessary element of a breeder's > life? > >> • consequentialism - had Hitler dyed at age 35, would that have been > premature? > >> > >> I know this seems like a tangent upon tangents. But it's not. It's > nonsense to relate serum Na to premature mortality because premature > mortality is nonsense. Prevalence of chronic disease seems, to me, a little > more well-formed ... but not by much. Biological age just seems like > pseudoscience to me, the flip side of Vampirism. I'd welcome an education, > though. > >> > > -- > ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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