Eric -
I like your introduction of "some kind of Ambivalence Frontier"... I
think this also expresses itself in the "close races" we have in
politics these days... a vague correlate to what happens with
high-scoring competitive games (like basketball) which often end up in
close calls with a few last-minute scores ultimately declaring the winner?
- Steve
On 1/3/23 1:31 PM, David Eric Smith wrote:
Long a favorite topic of mine.
Let me send you a link; almost-surely not the best, but done with
~1min of google searching images:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233384
See the 5th figure for actual data, rather than models.
But my understanding is that Gompertz mortality statistics are
unbelievably universal across metazoans. The parameters can be
shifted by lots of factors, but the functional form (which takes only
a couple of parameters) is absurdly more robust than one would expect
given all that varies.
Anyway, to the extent that there is Gompertz mortality, there is a
natural associated age for age-associated-death. For people it’s
somewhere in the 70-80 range, and I think there can be as much as a
10-year difference across different world gene pools (Japanese being
at the upper end, and maybe some other group in Central Asia east of
the Caucasus; I forget).
A thing I remember being told by a guy who does this kind of work,
there seem to be two modes between development-linked diseases (think,
childhood leukemias), and age-associated diseases. We have made
remarkable progress on many of the former, and very little on many of
the latter. Also (and I got this from researchers at Einstein college
in Yeshiva some years ago, or from a stack of their papers), if one
avoids rather specific risk factors, like welding or smoking for lung
cancers, or dioxin exposures for male breast cancers or the like, the
leading predictor for most of the old-age diseases is just your age.
So it has (to me) the look of what Holmse’s Wonderful One-Hoss Shay
would be if redone with Poisson statistics, to become a
minimum-information process. The nail that stuck up got hammered down
(extra resources for any disease that becomes visible to selection)
that now all the nails are at about the same height, and there is some
kind of ambivalence frontier.
My own anecdotal experience suggests that my previous paragraphs can’t
possibly be right, since there clearly are common and rare diseases of
the old. But I didn’t make this stuff up, and got it from some
serious literature.
Thanks,
Eric
On Jan 3, 2023, at 1:01 PM, glen <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote:
">144 mmol/l with 21% elevated risk of premature mortality". My last
test a week ago showed 144! Whew! I guess I have a normal risk for
premature mortality. 8^D
The concept of "premature death" is flat out ridiculous. But our
inability to well-define it raises some interesting questions.
• deprivation (by the dead, by the rest of us) - is the death of
Ramanujan at 32 *more* premature than the death of some rando at 32?
• life expectancy seems like yet another instance of people not
understanding statistics
• quality of life - is the death of a 20 year old born into and
likely to live in poverty *as* premature as the death of a 20 year
old born with a silver spoon?
• natural selection - is it premature for a 35 year old who's bred,
say, 10 children to die?
· or is it premature for them to die before their children have
children? I.e. is being a grandparent a necessary element of a
breeder's life?
• consequentialism - had Hitler dyed at age 35, would that have been
premature?
I know this seems like a tangent upon tangents. But it's not. It's
nonsense to relate serum Na to premature mortality because premature
mortality is nonsense. Prevalence of chronic disease seems, to me, a
little more well-formed ... but not by much. Biological age just
seems like pseudoscience to me, the flip side of Vampirism. I'd
welcome an education, though.
On 1/2/23 13:34, Roger Critchlow wrote:
There was a hacker news item this morning about maintaining
hydration and chronic illness:
https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,faHDDOmfSmBCowvyxqbh2EUz38-Hun0lWmP7p9abh_tufHZOPXeJwvh0zeVEv_pEJaprXTWcos80ECDWoak-cqMSeiutR3SgT9gK0pLzL_sP_rE,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,faHDDOmfSmBCowvyxqbh2EUz38-Hun0lWmP7p9abh_tufHZOPXeJwvh0zeVEv_pEJaprXTWcos80ECDWoak-cqMSeiutR3SgT9gK0pLzL_sP_rE,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext>
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,3LHxHO_rViNgwp08a3UTrLq1b_6yBaBjAfTKkzoiGgk1aUzN0rPYsbYzlJsfApi25gw42MqluJCqfiu35DTgrGehNVRLAaY9x0j7RY6uGcDwh4A,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2febiom%2farticle%2fPIIS2352-3964&c=E,1,3LHxHO_rViNgwp08a3UTrLq1b_6yBaBjAfTKkzoiGgk1aUzN0rPYsbYzlJsfApi25gw42MqluJCqfiu35DTgrGehNVRLAaY9x0j7RY6uGcDwh4A,&typo=1(22)00586-2/fulltext>>
those who exceeded 142 mmol/l of serum sodium in middle age got
sicker more often later in life.
It's the first measurement on my comprehensive metabolic panels.
It would be really funny if there actually was "One simple trick to
staying healthy!", but it was only discovered after we had
conditioned ourselves into never reading any article with such a title.
-- rec --
On Mon, Jan 2, 2023 at 2:04 PM glen <geprope...@gmail.com
<mailto:geprope...@gmail.com <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>>> wrote:
I think a mobility checkup would be more useful than blood tests.
See if you can stand on one foot for 10 seconds. Spin you around and
measure eye wobble. Measure joint angles in a sit-to-stand test.
Etc. Strength and reflex tests would also be useful. I *suppose*
cognitive testing trends would be useful. I'd love to see, eg how my
performance varies on something like a memory test or some logic
puzzles. With the covid loss of smell and taste thing, it would even
be cool to have a battery of sensory stimuli of some kind. If the
personality tests had any credibility, they'd be interesting to
track over time as well. Would you learn anything? IDK. But it would
be more interesting than the typical test results.
On 1/2/23 12:01, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> The last time I went in for a wellness check, the doctor
seemed annoyed that I was there. I left, humiliated.
>
> But it has been a while, and I am wondering what it would take
to actually learn something from a checkup. Is there some standard
package of broad blood tests and/or MRIs that would be a clue I was
becoming gravely ill? I was just shopping for new insurance and was
excited to learn all the things I can prepare for (Aflac's various
products). What would I even ask for?
>
> A few years ago, I had a car accident on the snow in Santa Fe
and had to have quite a bit of work done on my car. I have to say
billing the insurance for that was very satisfying. I had been
paying all these years and had nothing to show for it. It is
especially true for my medical coverage.
>
> To me going to the doctor is just an opportunity to get
COVID-19 in the waiting room. How can I get more from this experience?
--
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