Well, let us not just scoff at analyses about the odds of the end of the republic, let us prevent the end of the republic. Buses should be running to Canada at least up until the inauguration.
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith Sent: Friday, November 04, 2016 11:47 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their mouths are were saying: https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ Iowa Electronic Markets Daily Price Graph for the Winner Take All model... [Daily Price Graph] Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is a lot of volatility! I'm going to go do my early voting today... while cursing the lack of a Ranked Choice Voting scheme... but voting *for* the concept of 3rd party viability... Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and automatic ballot inclusion next round. >From the FEC website: http://www.fec.gov/press/bkgnd/fund.shtml PARTY CONVENTION AND GENERAL ELECTION GRANTS The presidential nominee of each major party may become eligible for a public grant of $20,000,000 plus COLA (over 1974). For 2012, the grant was approximately $91,241,400 for each major party nominee. However, the two major party presidential nominees in 2012 opted out of the public financing program in the general election. Candidates themselves may not raise any other funds to be used for campaigning during the general election period. The general election limit for publicly funded candidates for 2016 is $96,140,600. Public grants of $18,248,300 went to each of the major parties for their conventions in 2012. On April 3, 2014, President Barack Obama signed legislation to end the public funding of presidential nomination conventions. Since no third-party candidate received 5% of the vote in the 2008 presidential election, only the Republican and Democratic parties were eligible for 2012 convention grants, and only their nominees were eligible to receive grants for the general election once they were nominated. Third-party candidates could qualify for public funds retroactively if they received 5% or more of the vote in the general election.
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