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One is tempted to say that the arbitragers
are effective(ly) modelers ;-)
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, October 10, 2006 10:09
AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A billion
agents
On 10/9/06, Douglas
Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Interesting,
Ray. A number of years ago a couple of LANL program managers and I
went back to Washington to try to interest DOE in an ABM that was intended
to do exactly what you describe blow. In addition, the simulation
would have allowed market gaming scenarios to be run for analyzing how the
power arbitragers (remember CalPine?) could game the market (remember all
those windfall profits the power companies were making in California a few
years back?).
<snip>
It's also interesting
to note that many power arbitragers successfully gamed the system without the benefit of massive simulations.
It suggests to me that we often get tied up in our own simulation/modeling
expertise and forget that there's a lot of practitioners out there with
valuable domain expertise. Give an arbitrager a solid financial incentive for
finding opportunities to game a system and s/he will find them a whole load
faster than a modeler :-)
R
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