We spent a few days, but basically could not find anybody at DOE willing to give us the time of day, so the project never flew. We did mention a couple of times during our visit that DOE does have the word "Energy" in it. Had we gotten any support, the system would have been named ElectriSims, and would have been another if the family of "SIM's" developed over the years by our group (TRAMSIMS, EpiSims, MobiCOM).
--Doug (still completely unimpressed by the US Department of Energy -- rhymes with "Doh!")
What I'm hearing is that you-all (or at least Doug) use statistically
valid distributions to program the behaviour of your agents. This seems
reasonable for things that can be measured with certainty - patient
response to disease, for example. However, it seems to me that if you
conduct a survey of a population sample concerning, say, political
opinion or purchasing habits, you run the risk of bias in the survey
being translated into bias in the ABM.
Let me suggest an example close to my own heart. I am interested in
how people react to retail market price changes in electricity in future
demand-response systems. There are some data from existing
demand-response systems but these function differently than newer
systems. What's more, the populations are geographically different from
the target populations and they are much smaller. We could survey
customers to see if they would allow their heating and air-conditioning
systems to respond to market prices. The trouble with past surveys of
this type is that utility customers tend to be more willing to sacrifice
comfort in the abstract than in reality. If one uses the PDF from the
survey, then the results are far different than the PDF from the
reality. And, the reality only works for certain locales and climes.
--
Ray Parks [EMAIL PROTECTED]
IDART Project Lead Voice:505-844-4024
IORTA Department Mobile:505-238-9359
http://www.sandia.gov/scada Fax:505-844-9641
http://www.sandia.gov/idart Pager:800-690-5288
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--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
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