Computational social science doesn't lend itself to V&V the way that physics-based mod-sim does, so creativity in V&V is required.
But when it comes to policy making, then, the question is, "What does it mean to use modeling and simulation tools appropriately in producing knowledge that will feed into policy decisions?" The answer to this question is going to vary depending on the time scale for the decision (longer term planning vs. shorter term, highly tactical decision making).There are probably lots of other issues as well that I'm not thinking of because I really need another cup of coffee after a long night of lightning, thunder and terrified dogs. That said, I think what Doug described below - experimental design, different modeling and simulation packages, expertise and care - is a great start. Those of you attending FRIAM on the 18th of August... I'll be there with my Sandia buddy, Tim Trucano, and we're thinking about models, V&V, uncertainty, and policy-making pretty carefully these days because of some work we're pursuing with the Department of Defense. We'd love to engage in a good solid discussion about this topic with the FRIAM brain trust, so bring your ideas along. Laura -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Douglas Roberts Sent: Tue 8/8/2006 7:40 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making Re: simulation and policy-making, a project that my group is working on at the request of the current Washington administration is helping to do just that. At the request of a consortium of representatives from the White House, Dept of Treasury, DHS, Dept. of State, and a few other cabinet-level political types, we have run numerous simulation experimental designs to establish the bounds of the effectiveness of various intervention strategies for containing an H5N1 pandemic, should it occur in the US. We are using three simulation codes: EpiSims, Epicast, and one from the Imperial College in the UK. The name of the project is "Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study" (MIDAS), and it is funded by NIH. See http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/press02202006.html and http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Aug/08-339612.html or do a google search on "MIDAS bird flu policy" for more info. --Doug On 8/8/06, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Oh I thank RAND are probably plenty ambitious in what they simulate for > the US govt. Just check out their research areas: > http://www.rand.org/research_areas/ > > Robert > > > On 8/8/06, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Quoting Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > > So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers, > > what > > > does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of > > objectivity > > > (I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations - > > > political or economic - inevitably reflect the prejudices of their > > author or > > > funder? > > > > Validated simulations, by definition, reproduce something that the > > authors (or > > funders) deem relevant as a performance metric. But that's not a > > problem with > > models or simulations, assuming the metrics are documented. If the > > authors or > > funders are prone to choosing easy, low dimensional things to fit, they > > just > > need to be more ambitious. > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > -- Doug Roberts, RTI International [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell
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============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
