On 1/12/2025 10:35 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
On Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 5:36:07 AM UTC-7 Alan Grayson wrote:
On Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 2:43:02 AM UTC-7 Brent Meeker wrote:
On 1/11/2025 2:16 PM, Alan Grayson wrote:
On Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 1:55:12 PM UTC-7 John Clark
wrote:
On Sat, Jan 11, 2025 at 2:17 PM Alan Grayson
<agrays...@gmail.com> wrote:
/> What isn't being discussed is the likely banking
crisis as a result of these fires. With entire
neighhoods burning out of existence, I wouldn't be
surprised if there's a Trillion+ dollars of bad debt
being created, as homeowners default on their mortgages./
*The figure I've heard is $135 billion in fire damage,it
would take more than that to cause a banking crisis. *
*
*
*John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>*
That's just a preliminary estimate for rebuilding houses and
*total *infrastructure replacement. Three months ago, State
Farm, a major insurance company, cancelled 70% of its fire
insurance policies in the LA area, so I infer that most
homeowners are uninsured, and those that are, likely won't
collect anything since insurance is not structured for this
type of near global disaster and many will declare bankruptcy
to avoid paying and going under. Fire Insurance works when
there are sporadic fires, not as in this case where entire
towns are wiped out, like Altadena, north and east of
Pasadena where I resided when I worked for JPL, and Pacific
Palisades, and some others. Given the number of homes totally
destroyed and the likely lack of insurance among a majority
of residents, IMO the total damage, including mortgage
defaults, could exceed one TRILLION dollars. AG
Remember, those properties were almost all insured. The
insurance companies also buy reinsurance so they spread the
risk further. A trillion dollars is probably high for
rebuilding everything. There were around a thousand homes and
buildings burned, I'd estimate around 500K$ per house to
rebuild. The insurance companies will pay off. They many not
want to insure new homes, but the state may require them to or
else not do any business in CA.
Brent
The number of buildings burned is around 10,000 and counting, and
probably most were not insured for fire. I have a friend from JPL
who lives in La Verne and he's not insured for fire because, he
said, the annual rate is too high. He mentioned it as $15,000.
Leaving CA could be the best option for insurance companies rather
than going bankrupt. AG
Latest estimate of buildings burned is 12,300, and median cost of
rebuilding a home, say in Altadena, is $1.3 million.
Really? That sounds more like the median /price/, which includes the
land. Most places around L.A. the land accounts for 1/3 to 1/2 of the
price of a house. Last I checked construction cost was around
$250/sqft, but of course that's likely go up a lot with rising demand.
Brent
Still a long way to one Trillion, but these estimates do not include
mortgage defaults. I'll ask my friend if mortgages require fire
insurance. I know he doesn't have such insurance. AG
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
Groups "Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/3178221e-59e9-47b5-b182-7c99c54bd809n%40googlegroups.com
<https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/3178221e-59e9-47b5-b182-7c99c54bd809n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/0e4cd7cd-92dc-459d-9ae1-028542a40c10%40gmail.com.
