The data shown on that graph is inconclusive between exponential or super-exponential growth.
In theory, super-exponential (ie hyperbolic) growth won't happen until AIs start to design themselves. 2027? Maybe, but there's a lot of hype in this field. But sometime in the near future - yes it's looking likely. On Thu, Apr 24, 2025 at 08:39:45AM -0400, John Clark wrote: > The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 ) that came out > about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are necessary: > > Beyond The Last Horizon > > image.png > Progress is so fast that just a few days after the updated report there was > enough information to make the graph seen above; the AI project people > conclude > from it that "OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on the faster > curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling time". Keep in > mind that the above graph is an exponential graph, so a straight line means > exponential growth, and anything above that line means super exponential > growth. > > The authors conclude that today "AIs are able to do quick tasks, but not long > tasks. But they’re getting better at long tasks! So far it looks like they can > do tasks of about 15 - 60 minutes, and that number doubles somewhere between > every 3 - 7 months. These numbers are most applicable to coding, and > uncertainty increases the further we go from that domain. AIs seem on track to > master coding before they master any other comparatively economically > important > sector. That's interesting because if there’s an intelligence explosion, > superhuman coder AIs are probably when it starts in earnest. Our best guess is > AIs will become as good or better than the very best human computer > programmers > sometime in 2027, although with big error bars and multiple asterisks. We > think > these human-level coders will be enough to start the intelligence explosion, > which is why we place it in 2027 or 2028." > > It looks like Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will happen in > 2045 is way too conservative. > > And to think, some people are still getting all hot and bothered over > trivialities like illegal immigration and transsexual men in women's sports. > > John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis > akf > > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email > to [email protected]. > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list > /CAJPayv2MaMTz2Cgqz0pX2WsMXbbeo-TiakbOUWgYcxh2-btBzQ%40mail.gmail.com. -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders [email protected] http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/aBGFxLbaw-ch0poV%40zen.
