Given that AI has 0 intelligence, it actually doubles every nanosecond: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
On Thursday, 24 April 2025 at 15:40:29 UTC+3 John Clark wrote: > *The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 > <https://ai-2027.com/?ending=slowdown#section-slowdown-0> ) **that came > out about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are > necessary: * > > *Beyond The Last Horizon* > <https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/beyond-the-last-horizon?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > [image: image.png] > *Progress is so fast that just a few days after the updated report there > was enough information to make the graph seen above; the AI project people > conclude from it that "OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on > the faster curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling > time". Keep in mind that the above graph is an exponential graph, so a > straight line means exponential growth, and anything above that line means > super exponential growth.* > > *The authors conclude that today "AIs are able to do quick tasks, but not > long tasks. But they’re getting better at long tasks! So far it looks like > they can do tasks of about 15 - 60 minutes, and that number doubles > somewhere between every 3 - 7 months. These numbers are most applicable to > coding, and uncertainty increases the further we go from that domain. AIs > seem on track to master coding before they master any other comparatively > economically important sector. That's interesting because if there’s an > intelligence explosion, superhuman coder AIs are probably when it starts in > earnest. Our best guess is AIs will become as good or better than the very > best human computer programmers sometime in 2027, although with big error > bars and multiple asterisks. We think these human-level coders will be > enough to start the intelligence explosion, which is why we place it in > 2027 or 2028."* > > *It looks like Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will happen > in 2045 is way too conservative.* > > *And to think, some people are still getting all hot and bothered over > trivialities like illegal immigration and transsexual men in women's > sports. * > > *John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis > <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* > akf > > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/b1a10bd4-3d58-4c04-9f76-5661a75140dbn%40googlegroups.com.
