Michael Ross via EV wrote:
I am trying to understand if Zeihan has an agenda... what does it take to make
the
unique aluminum alloy that Tesla has crafted to make body parts that are
not steel... certainly the availability of lithium is not
good. Nor is it good for cobalt, or nickel... if LiFePO is the future, we do
not have a ready
supply of phosphate.
I think there is a lot of guesswork being presented to the effect that EVs
are going to be with us soon, en masse.
I agree, Michael. I can't provide anything but anecdotal evidence on any
of these. I doubt that anyone else can, either. Our society has become
an extremely complex machine -- so complex that no one can really
understand it. So all we get are various "blind men" describing their
view of the "elephant". They get some details right; but miss out on the
big picture.
Human nature also plays an important role. Let's face it; humans tend to
be short-term thinkers. When they want something, they want it *now*;
and will use the most expedient way to get it. Short-term
quick/easy/cheap solutions may have bad long-term consequences; but they
don't think about that.
Humans also like things to stay the same. "We've always done it this
way" is a powerful reason not to change. Things that no longer work
become habits, and then bad habits.
When people lived in forests, trees seemed inexhaustible; so they cut
them down for wood. That became the norm; so a huge logging industry ran
wild until the forests were gone. Only then did they think about
sustainable logging.
When coal could be dug up in your back yard with a shovel, people burned
that for fuel. Again, whole industries developed around it, until the
health and environmental effects became tragically obvious. Only then
were standards developed to mitigate (but not stop) the damage.
Cars initially burned gasoline not because it was a good choice; but
because it was a cheap throw-away product. Again, a gigantic industry
developed around it. Once the environmental harm became obvious,
emission controls were mandated to mitigate the damage. But people still
aren't willing to accept the full consequences of our massive use of oil.
Sustainable long-term solutions take time to develop. There will always
be a few that work on them, to improve and perfect them to eventually
take over once the bad solutions are exhausted.
So...
I still think that EVs are a path to a solution. But our present EVs are
using cheap/easy/expedient materials and methods, just like people have
always done. In their own way, today's EVs are just as crude, dirty, and
unsustainable as every other "first" technology.
But over time, I think companies will learn. Once they need to make
millions of EVs a year instead of thousands, they will come to depend on
recycling and more sustainable environmentally friendly materials. Not
out of altruism; but out of *necessity*! They will be *forced* to by
material scarcity, government regulations and public pressure once the
consequences of their short-sighted thinking become obvious!
Lee
--
The reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable man
persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all
progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Bernard Shaw
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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