Actually, any "major player" can make a bad misstep or two and fail entirely. How many banks and auto manufacturers survived the last decade only because of government bailouts?
I agree that Tesla is more risky than GM or Ford, but they appear to be on a path that could have people in 50 years wondering why there was ever any reason to drive anything else. Mike On March 14, 2015 12:33:38 PM MDT, Michael Ross via EV <[email protected]> wrote: >Is that valuation well deserved? > >There is a difference between what a business is, and what the market >will >pay for shares in it. I am more or less quoting Elon Musk when I say >it. >He is well aware that the number of cars they make is nearly >insignificant. And, Tesla can have a bad misstep or two and fail >entirely. You cannot say that about a "major player." > >They are influential, and Musk would be happy if that is their legacy. > >On Sat, Mar 14, 2015 at 2:22 PM, Larry Gales <[email protected]> >wrote: > >> Well, the market capitalization of Tesla is 24 Billion, so I would >> consider that pretty major. It is 40% of General Motors market cap. >> >> On Fri, Mar 13, 2015 at 2:33 PM, Michael Ross ><[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Tesla is hardly a major manufacturer, but others qualify. They do >think >>> big though. Maybe someday. >>> >>> On Fri, Mar 13, 2015 at 4:57 PM, Larry Gales via EV ><[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> For both leasing and battery swap to be practical, you don't need >to have >>>> all manufacturers adhere to a common standard (though that would be >>>> nice), >>>> but a major manufacturer such as Tesla could have their on swap >stations >>>> that serve their own type of vehicles. >>>> >>>> On Thu, Mar 12, 2015 at 5:44 PM, EVDL Administrator via EV < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>> > As I see it, the model for successful battery exchange in EVs is >the >>>> lowly >>>> > flashlight (torch). The cells come in 4 basic sizes, with two of >these >>>> > most >>>> > commonly used (AA and D). Effectively, you have 2 or maybe 4 >tiers of >>>> > energy content and power capacity; then, within each tier, you >use more >>>> > cells to get more of both. >>>> > >>>> > To make battery exchange work with EVs, you'd have to get all the >EV >>>> > manufacturers to agree on one or two standard module sizes. >They'd >>>> need >>>> > standardized connections that mate as the battery is installed, >just as >>>> > flashlight battery connections do. You'd have different >capacities >>>> > (through >>>> > different chemistries) in a given module size, and also vary the >>>> capacity >>>> > by >>>> > the number of modules the EV used. >>>> > >>>> > For affordability and convenience, you'd have to fully automate >the >>>> > exchange >>>> > process. The driver would pull into the exchange bay, pay the >>>> operator, >>>> > wait a couple of minutes, and drive out with a freshly charged >battery. >>>> > Most likely the modules would have to attach from the bottom, >with >>>> > hydraulic >>>> > lifts and conveyors doing the work. You could have one pit to >remove >>>> the >>>> > spent battery, and another to raise a fresh one into place. The >EV >>>> would be >>>> > moved from one pit to the next on tracks. You should be able to >>>> exchange >>>> > an >>>> > EV's battery even faster than a gas pump can fill an ICEV's tank. >>>> > >>>> > This model might have worked IF all the EV manufacturers could >have >>>> agreed >>>> > on it from the start. But making that happen would have been a >huge >>>> > challenge, and now it's just about impossible. Then, building >all the >>>> > exchange stations would require a stupendous investment. >>>> > >>>> > All this is pretty daunting. Just ask Shai Agassi. >>>> > >>>> > So, I wouldn't say that battery exchange is a stupid idea, but >I'm >>>> afraid >>>> > it's not a very practical one. >>>> > >>>> > David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA >>>> > EVDL Administrator >>>> > >>>> > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = >>>> > EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ >>>> > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = >>>> > Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not >>>> > reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my >>>> > email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . >>>> > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > _______________________________________________ >>>> > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >>>> > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >>>> > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >>>> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Larry Gales >>>> -------------- next part -------------- >>>> An HTML attachment was scrubbed... >>>> URL: < >>>> >http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20150313/ec1137a7/attachment.htm >>>> > >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >>>> http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >>>> For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >>>> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. >>> Thomas A. Edison >>> <http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html> >>> >>> A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. >>> *Warren Buffet* >>> >>> Michael E. Ross >>> (919) 585-6737 Land >>> (919) 576-0824 <https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones> >Google >>> Phone >>> (919) 631-1451 Cell >>> >>> [email protected] >>> <[email protected]> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> Larry Gales >> _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
