Not everyone has a suburban ranch home with 2000 sq ft of roof. Many
urban dwellers live in apartments with a tiny apportioned amount of roof
space. Others have used the roof for other purposes - such as south
facing clerestorey windows or a roof garden. Others may have gables
with roofs facing east or west. Many don't have a garage with a
separate roof.
In my case, there's no way I can get enough panels to go off the grid
with today's technology. The grid is here to stay for the indefinite
future.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Ben Goren via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "EVDL Administrator" <[email protected]>; "Electric Vehicle Discussion
List" <[email protected]>
Sent: 09-Jan-15 12:35:33 PM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EV Demand Response - backdoor solution
On Jan 9, 2015, at 8:29 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV
<[email protected]> wrote:
I'm no expert, but I suppose it might come to pass if PV efficiency
jumps
and cost tumbles,
PV efficiency is already plenty. The insolation on the average
single-family home's roof at today's efficiency is virtually always
some multiple, generally some very significant multiple, of the home's
electricity use. And said multiple is again virtually always more than
adequate to charge a vehicle.
And materials are and for some time have been the cheapest component of
a PV installation. What costs all the money is first and foremost the
labor; qualified electricians aren't cheap, especially those who both
have experience with high voltage DC and are competent roofers. And,
many places, the legal paperwork -- all the permits and inspections and
utility company writeoffs and what-not -- winds up costing more than
the bill of materials.
The key ingredients we really need are twofold: solar roofing
installations that can take the place of and be installed by today's
low-skill roofing laborers (perhaps with an electrician just for the
final run from the roof to the breaker box) and less-expensive battery
technology. The former exists in various prototypes that keep getting
mentioned in press releases, and the latter is something well known to
the EV crowd.
"Aargh, no clean underwear, and I can't do laundry because we're at
7% and I
still have to charge the car. I wonder if the car has enough charge
left
for a trip to the store to buy some."
That just means the system is under-sized. In such a case, either you
should have spent more for a bigger system, or you knew what you were
getting into and therefore budget your energy use accordingly. Low
income households already face similar problems...do I pay the electric
bill with the last $50 remaining on this credit card's limit, or do I
use the money to buy groceries for the kids?
"Sorry, boss, I can't come in to work until this afternoon. Joe ran
the
house flat with his welder last night, and I won't have enough juice
to
charge my car until the sun comes up."
If Joe's a contractor, he should be showing up with his own power
supply (such as one of the many industrial EVs we've seen Bruce mention
with their own power plugs) to run the welder in this future -- or,
otherwise, first making sure that the site he's visiting has the spare
capacity to power the welder. And if Joe lives in the home, it's his
own damned fault.
Also, the cost of storage (lithium battery? what?)
It's a big question today, but I suspect we'll have a clear winner in
the next several years at the most. Nickel-iron batteries live longer
than people but cost more than any other type of battery. Lead acids
are pretty cheap but die after a few years and cost significantly more
over a lifetime. But there may well be a market in EV batteries old
enough to be less than optimal for vehicular use but still with plenty
left in them for an off-grid system. I could see leasing / renting of
battery systems becoming popular, with the company that owns the
batteries responsible for ensuring a minimum kWh capacity of the pack
in exchange for whatever fees they charge, similar to what we've
speculated Tesla might offer with their car battery swaps.
would have to decline by, oh, I dunno, say, 90%?
Nowhere near as much.
In many parts of the country, the payback time for a complete off-grid
solution is better than the payback time for money market funds and
other financial instruments. That is, if you're invested in the stock
market or especially your bank, you'll be wealthier at the end of a
decade or three if you pull the money out and put it into an off-grid
system.
But that requires a significant amount (to most people) of available
capital.
But it also means that a business -- such as Solar City -- can afford
to invest its own capital (or borrowed funds) to install such a system
and become an ad-hoc utility and still make a marginal profit.
That's with today's technology...and it's only getting better.
I have no idea whether such a quantum leap in PV and energy storage
tech is
on the horizon. Absent one, though, I suspect your estimate of "ten
to
twenty years" is probably a bit optimistic.
But that's just it. It's doable _and_economical_ today, if you have the
capital to invest. No more revolutionary breakthroughs are required to
bring it to the masses; only gradual refinements of the types we
regularly see and expect, perhaps coupled with some entrepreneurial
innovation.
Cheers,
b&
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