Again the same stuff on Sky News [1] which I don't like:
(1) the war isn't going Russia's way, and not going to plan
(why not and how can they know?), and
(2) Putin is mad - maybe so, but this in particular isn't
madness but aggressive nationalism.
The Russian strategy seems to have been pretty basic all
along:
first take out intelligence, leadership, the air force etc
with missiles;
then invade from the North (Belarus), the East (Donbas) and
the South (Crimea);
with the goal of encircling the Ukrainian forces that are
locked-in in the East (they were already there before the
war, fighting the separatists), the encirclement is done by
cutting the country in half from Odessa to Kiev.
The Russian troops seem to move pretty much at will in the
countryside, then they lay siege to the cities which they
hit with all bombardment they can muster, this is the so
called "shelling" one keep hearing about (artillery
mostly), the purpose is to make people suffer more so they'll
surrender more quickly.
Because man-made obstacles have been placed on so many streets
the Russians would have to move at snail's pace if they ever
entered the cities to bring the fight there, then their
vehicles would also be easy targets to Molotov Cocktails,
maybe IEDs and even kamikaze drones ...
So instead they rely on the shelling! It is almost like
a strategy from the ancient world, very thoroughly
implemented, as cruel as efficient
[1] https://dataswamp.org/~incal/conf/.zsh/news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE
--
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https://dataswamp.org/~incal
