Puhleeze -- do your homework, student. Listen to the interview again.
Solotaroff does NOT link Evert's death to whitebark pine and climate
change. He describes it as an accident involving improper marking of a
site after another team had released a drugged bear.
With respect to trout, introduced trout are a problem, but that does not
negate any relationship between rising water temperatures, diminution of
streamflow, and trout population declines.
In the interview, Solotaroff seems to adequately appreciate the
complexity of the ecosystem, that several factors affect bear food
supply. He does not make the propellerhead mistake of assuming that if
X influences Z, then Y cannot. If Y influences Z, Y influences Z. It
doesn't matter what X does, except in the case of interactive effects.
Here is what the Greater Yellowstone Coalition says about climate change
and trout populations:
"On top of the existing suite of threats, the climate is changing in
Greater Yellowstone and aquatic systems are already showing a response.
As temperatures have warmed, snowpack is on a downward trend and peak
spring runoff in the Intermountain West is occurring on average 10 to 20
days earlier than the historical average. This translates to lower and
warmer summer flows, which is bad news for cold-water fisheries. When
water temperatures warm, thermal thresholds for native cutthroat trout
are exceeded and warm-water fish species such as small mouth bass
readily move in to occupy new habitat. It is highly likely that over the
next 50 years, the world-renowned cold-water fishery of the Yellowstone
River below Livingston, Mont. will shrink considerably as the small
mouth [sic] population of the lower river moves upstream."
A predator such as a grizzly bear may have difficulty switching to
another prey species, such as smallmouth bass, that exhibits different
behavior. Solotaroff seems to be spot on by noting that the bear in the
other fatal attack in Yellowstone was severely underweight. There seems
to be some significant food supply issues affecting their behavior, and
I am inclined to agree with him that climate change plays A role.
Dave
On 4/17/2011 11:15 PM, Lynn M. Moore wrote:
Thank you for the sources Dave, for the most part they support my assertion
that Mr Solotaroff exaggerated his conclusions that the recent bear attacks in
the greater yellowstone area are a direct result of climate change.
Dr. Everts death, was not caused by an attack from a hungry bear, but was an
unfortunate accident caused by a bear recovering from sedation.
It is likely that bear-human encounters will increase as the pine bark nuts
decrease (as your google sources suggest), but this particular death, which Mr.
Solotaroff mentioned specifically in his interview, was not a result of the
pine beetle epidemic.
Mr. Solotaroff claimed that all the trout species (cutthroat, brook, and
rainbow) in Yellowstone were diminished, because the streams were warming due
to climate change, the google sources you provided mention no evidence of
warming waters. The cutthroat numbers have decreased, but as a result of the
invasive species lake trout, not because the waters are warming as Mr
Solotaroff claimed in the interview on NPR.
Climate change is a real problem for our western ecosystems, for all
ecosystems. But putting forth a scare tactic, that climate change is causing
grizzly bears to attack humans does not win over the climate deniers. The
climate deniers solution would be to shoot more grizzly bears, not trade in
their SUV for a Prius. Grizzly bears are always dangerous. Non-fatal bear
attacks (and occasionally fatal ones) happen every year. Anyone going into bear
country, whether it is in the park or not does so with the knowledge of risk.
The tone of the interview was wrong. I still hold that Solotaroff made too many linkages
that are not supported, and they appear as "smoke". Journalists, especially
those who are not scientists (such as Solotaroff) should learn from journalists who are
scientists (such as you Dave, i recall your posts from last week). My problem with
journalism is not influenced by any bias I have against journalists, I am biased against
exaggerated statements. NPR generally consults scientists when presenting pieces such
as this. i am disappointed that NPR did not follow up with scientists who are actually
doing the work.
LM
On Apr 17, 2011, at 3:27 PM, David M. Lawrence wrote:
Before attacking journalists, Lynn, maybe you should do some
fact-checking on your own. It seems Solotaroff is not too far off base
-- there certainly seems to be enough proverbial "smoke" to make the
claims you attack him for:
> From Scientific American: Lack of food drives human-grizzly
conflicts—and human-grizzly fatalities (http://bit.ly/gEteZB)
> From Billings Gazette: Scarce pine nuts leaves Yellowstone grizzlies
hungry, more dangerous (http://bit.ly/eql2yl)
> From the U.S. Fish& Wildlife Service -- in 2003!: How will the supply
of Whitebark Pine Nuts
affect Grizzlies in Yellowstone? (http://1.usa.gov/gRPLBf)
> From National Parks Traveller: Bison, Pine Nuts, Trout and Grizzlies:
Perfect Storm For Yellowstone National Park's Wildlife Managers?
(http://bit.ly/hvimcP)
> From Deseret News -- in 2003: Bumper crop of pine nuts for grizzlies
(http://bit.ly/id9v0v)
> From Environment360 -- in 2009: Yellowstone’s Grizzly Bears Face
Threats on Two Fronts (http://bit.ly/eeavZx)
> From Yellowstone Science -- in 2006: Grizzly Bear Nutrition and Ecology
Studies in Yellowstone National Park (http://bit.ly/dOLbYV)
All this is from the first 10 hits of a Google search on the subject --
all of it supports the notion that loss of important forage may drive
bears into regions where they are more likely to come into contact and
confrontation with humans. If you know of contrary evidence, we'd love
to hear it. Otherwise, your attack on journalism seems driven more by
your own bias than on any actual fault with the work journalists do.
Journalists do NOT have to wait until the scientific community makes up
its mind -- which it almost never does on anything -- before drawing
their own conclusions about an issue. Journalists are supposed to be
independent, too, and sometimes they might (heaven forbid!) come to
different conclusions that scientists will. Nevertheless, what they say
and write should should be based on evidence, or at least on reasonable
inference drawn from available evidence. It appears Solotaroff's
statements are journalistically -- even scientifically -- valid at this
point.
Dave
On 4/17/2011 12:17 PM, Lynn M. Moore wrote:
I heard the NPR interview yesterday and was left angered. I have been a public
radio supporter for many years. NPR has been under attack for presenting
unbalanced coverage. For the first time, I have to agree. The only part of
the interview with Paul Solotaroff that may represent current scientific
hypotheses is the mountain pine beetle epidemic. Ten years of drought in
Wyoming is linked to the pine beetle epidemic, and is a significant departure
from the historical range of variability in this system. The loss of the pine
nuts represents a significant loss of food source to the grizzly. But the
accuracy of the interview stops there.
Paul Solotaroff is speculating about the loss of trout (brook, cutthroat, and
rainbow) numbers. While there may be an effect upon these populations from
climate change, I do not think that scientists have enough data as yet to make
that statement. Most fish research concerning climate change is focused upon
downstream areas where the warming trend is more pronounced.
Anyone who has ever hunted outside of Yellowstone Park knows that for decades, for as
long as managed hunting has occurred, the grizzly bears of Yellowstone Park have learned
the gun shot "dinner bell." The bears have not suddenly learned this behavior
over the last ten years.
Finally, if you read the original "Ghost Park" article by Solotaroff in Men's
Journal, two paragraphs are devoted to the gory details concerning the bear fatalities
last year. Not even the right wing conservative newspapers in Wyoming detailed how Dr.
Evert was killed. He does not seem to mention the fact that bear attacks occur every year
in the Rocky Mountain Region and are largely a result of the bear-human interface.
This interview is a blatant example of why the public questions our science.
If a journalist's job is to fact check using multiple sources, then what
Solotaroff does is not journalism, it is sensationalism. Soltaroff does not
communicate important information to the public and policymakers; what he
communicates is an opinion not fact.
Lynn Moore
Graduate Student
Program in Ecology
University of Wyoming
--
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David M. Lawrence | Home: (804) 559-9786
7471 Brook Way Court | Fax: (804) 559-9787
Mechanicsville, VA 23111 | Email: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
USA | http: http://fuzzo.com
------------------------------------------------------
"All drains lead to the ocean." -- Gill, Finding Nemo
"We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
"No trespassing
4/17 of a haiku" -- Richard Brautigan
--
------------------------------------------------------
David M. Lawrence | Home: (804) 559-9786
7471 Brook Way Court | Fax: (804) 559-9787
Mechanicsville, VA 23111 | Email: [email protected]
USA | http: http://fuzzo.com
------------------------------------------------------
"All drains lead to the ocean." -- Gill, Finding Nemo
"We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
"No trespassing
4/17 of a haiku" -- Richard Brautigan
