On Thu, Mar 22, 2012 at 9:57 AM, Chris Murphy <li...@colorremedies.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Mar 22, 2012, at 2:10 AM, drago01 wrote:
>>>
>> Interesting. People I know just using them (tablets) as "toys" to play
>> some causal games, surf the net & read mails. They go back to there
>> laptops / desktops to do anything beyond that.
>
> Most people don't. It's important to understand most of us on this list 
> aren't most people.

I didn't claim thatI just countered your "my parents example" ...
basically this kind of "evidence" is moot  ... we need more data to
judge that.

> Toys?

I said the people I was talking about used them as toys. (Please read
what I wrote and don't try to refute stuff that isn't even written
there).

> FAA Approves IPad for Flight Navigation
> http://www.tabletedia.com/news/2820.html
>
> Here's a quote from a doctor: "Even if you’re not at home, you can quickly 
> pick up your phone, view the EKG, and take care of patients remotely."
> http://www.imedicalapps.com/2011/12/apple-top-iphone-ipad-medical-apps-2011/
>
> This is doing 2 minute google searches...

Again see the enterprise part "(it does make sense for some uses
though)." ... those are those uses. I am not saying tablets are
useless. I am just saying those are *different* devices.
You don't replace a plane with a car either.

> People read books on mobile devices. Computers? Ick. I'm not reading a book 
> on a computer. It's unpleasant. I can't read on a mobile device because I 
> need a browser with an average of 34 tabs. Most people lack my lunacy.

Well I'd prefer a real boot or an ereader over a computer or tablet.

>
>>
>>> And increasingly less often. Their phone? Can't live without it. It's 
>>> already a primary device.
>>
>> Well people couldn't live without "dumbphones" either so this is
>> natural progress.
>
> They could. They had desktops or laptops. Most people would replace their 
> phone in a day if it broke or were lost. A home computer? Weekend. Maybe next 
> weekend.
>

Most people that buy smartphones today *do* have laptops / desktoüs.

>> "I agree that we will see more smartphones and tablets in the future"
>> ... yes no doubt that market still has a potential to grow. I just do
>> not believe that a significant amount of people will throw there
>> desktops/laptops away and use tablets / smartphones instead.
>
> Most people will. There will be no advantage to a desktop or laptop. So far, 
> speed is all that's really come up. That's going to be a non-issue in a 
> hurry. There's BILLIONS of dollars pouring into mobile and tablet right now. 
> It's what people want.

Actually speed isn't an advantage see the (now dead) netbook hype. For
most people current speed is "good enough" (hence no need to go buy a
new computer every year).

>>
>> Tablets are 99% consumption only devices. Your are missing the
>> "production market" ... people do use computers to do work, write the
>> apps that the tablet/smartphone people enjoy etc.
>
> Developer market? Image editing and video editing stations? Small markets. 
> Enough to maintain x86? Yeah sure, for a while. But as a majority?

Office, DTP and probably others or in short "content creation".

> Mobile market isn't just syphoning users from the consumer desktop market, 
> it's growing the market.
>
>
>> So no there is still a marked beyond the consumption only devices
>> (tablets) and the data centers (servers). The world is not black and
>> white.
>
> It is a shrinking market.

it is a saturated marked.

>>
>>> Thunderbolt on an ARM tablet to connect a larger display, bluetooth 
>>> keyboard, and internet access and the overwhelming majority can do what 
>>> they need to do.
>>
>> Which is a lot more work then simply open the laptop and start working.
>
> Consumers are complicated.

...

>>> For home users, it has already happened a while ago. They don't need a 
>>> desktop. They probably don't need a laptop either.
>>
>> When home user == "only consumes content" then yes but that is not
>> necessarily the only use of computers / laptops at home either.
>
> It's the majority case. Email, web browser, books, Netflix, and it's a baby 
> sitter. It's like candy multiplied by TV for kids. Way more interesting for 
> them than desktop computers or laptops.
>
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