On Thu, Mar 22, 2012 at 8:57 AM, Chris Murphy <li...@colorremedies.com> wrote: > On Mar 22, 2012, at 1:23 AM, drago01 wrote: > >> On Thu, Mar 22, 2012 at 8:16 AM, Chris Murphy <li...@colorremedies.com> >> wrote: >>> our "computers" are about to become typewriters. It will not be a decade >>> longer. >>> >>> http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/03/canalys-more-smartphones-than-pcs-shipped-in-2011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+weblogsinc%2Fengadget+%28Engadget%29 >> >> While I agree that we will see more smartphones and tablets in the >> future the people that actually replace there traditional computers >> with tablets or even smartphones are near zero. > > You're assuming they had a computer to begin with.
I was talking about this people. People that had no access to computers to begin with are of course a different story. > The data is noisy but there's a significant minority who do not have > computers, now buying a smart phone. This will grow. They may never end up > with a desktop. Even Apple has disconnected a requirement for having a > desktop. My parents are candidates for replacing their laptop with just an > iPad. Maybe 1/4 of the friends I have use a desktop/laptop once a week or > less. Interesting. People I know just using them (tablets) as "toys" to play some causal games, surf the net & read mails. They go back to there laptops / desktops to do anything beyond that. > And increasingly less often. Their phone? Can't live without it. It's already > a primary device. Well people couldn't live without "dumbphones" either so this is natural progress. > >> Sells do not really tell the whole story as many people simply don't >> have a need to buy new laptops/desktops because what they have is >> "good enough" so they spend there money on other gadgets. > > Mobile devices are replaced more frequently than desktops, which could also > skew the data toward mobile. But Apple didn't become the biggest company in > the world by market capitalization, eclipsing Microsoft and even > Exxon-Mobile, by selling desktops and laptops. It's iOS. (And the iMonostore.) "I agree that we will see more smartphones and tablets in the future" ... yes no doubt that market still has a potential to grow. I just do not believe that a significant amount of people will throw there desktops/laptops away and use tablets / smartphones instead. > Desktop computers are used overwhelmingly for email and web browsing. It's > total overkill. The desktop computer is a super computer that no consumer > really needs. It's a dying market. It's now servers and mobile. The > transitional element will be laptops/ultrabooks (netbooks obviously are dead) > which will keep desktop operating systems and x86 around as a significant > minority, but not for long. Tablets are 99% consumption only devices. Your are missing the "production market" ... people do use computers to do work, write the apps that the tablet/smartphone people enjoy etc. So no there is still a marked beyond the consumption only devices (tablets) and the data centers (servers). The world is not black and white. > Thunderbolt on an ARM tablet to connect a larger display, bluetooth keyboard, > and internet access and the overwhelming majority can do what they need to do. Which is a lot more work then simply open the laptop and start working. > The economies of scale of desktops, even in business, is dropping rapidly. Not seeing this happening. Switching to tabelts is just unproductive (it does make sense for some uses though). > For home users, it has already happened a while ago. They don't need a > desktop. They probably don't need a laptop either. When home user == "only consumes content" then yes but that is not necessarily the only use of computers / laptops at home either. -- devel mailing list devel@lists.fedoraproject.org https://admin.fedoraproject.org/mailman/listinfo/devel
