That is a fascinating analysis, and a lot to think about.
Thanks.
On 09/22/2015 08:26 PM, Ross Gardler wrote:
An observation, from an ASF Member ...
TL;DR version: this is only history repeating itself, as long as we, the people
doing the work, continue to learn and adapt the open source world will survive
Long version...
My dad (who I consider far wiser than me) taught me that things tend to go in
approx. 7 year cycles. You can see it everywhere, music trends, fashion,
marketing styles, business management styles etc. The duration varies for each
industry, 7 years is the average. He explained that this is because of the
lifecycle of decision makers who have to make their mark before moving on to
their next career goal.
That is, since there is a limited number of ways of doing something all changes
affected by decision makers are (in general terms) just a rehash of what went
before with some incremental improvements. Furthermore, we tend to swing,
pendulum like, from one solution space to another as a result of the limited
options presented to us. We tend to build on what we know, it's rare we invent
something completely new.
My wise dad taught me that watching for those cycles enables one to always play at the
head of the *next* wave. While the glory is at the head of the current wave, longevity
and success (as a leader) comes from being "ahead of the curve" - looking to
what will be popular next.
The ASF is a leader lets apply this to the foundation.
Consider a pendulum where point a is one extreme, point b is the center point
and point c is the other extreme. Now:
Let a = open source is a business model
Let c = open source is a development model
Let b = "community over code" and "a pragmatic license" (sound familiar? -
that's deliberate)
If I look back over the 20 years of the Apache Group and the Foundation we see open source
going through the swing from a -> b -> c -> b -> a many times. Whereas the ASF
itself has stayed reasonably stable at point b.
I believe we are currently close to point a (open source = business model). This last
happened in 2008 (ha, look at that, exactly 7 years, honestly, it's true by dad is a very
wise man :-). Check it yourself, do a web search for "open source is not a business
model" - my first 5 hits were all either 2008 or 2015.
Back to Jim's observation. I agree that "Apache is ... all about community and fun whilst
still changing the world" (point b on the pendulum) I don't agree with what I believe is
implied in Jim's full statement - " Apache is *one of the still remaining oasis of open source
being* all about community and fun whilst still changing the world,"
I think we have *always* been one of the few places where open source is "all about
community and fun whilst still changing the world". Our uniqueness is not that we
are one of the few orgs at point b. No, our uniqueness is that we don't allow ourselves
to be pulled too far towards point a or b as the pendulum swings. We are not fickle
followers of fashion. We know where the optimal point on that pendulum is and we have
settled here because we are leaders, not followers.
We are not unique in this. There are other places that play this leadership
role, some at different points on the swing, some simply following the current
trends (if you want my opinion on where I would place the various foundations
you need to buy multiple beers, plus a few Whisky's to loosen the tongue ;-)
Over time the pendulum becomes less extreme as the new decision makers learn
from history. For example, I don't think we will ever see a swing back to
exclusively proprietary software being seen by industry as the only viable
business model. Similarly I don't think we will ever see the day when the
majority of open source advocates insist on using the term Free software.
For kicks, consider the difference between the 2015 "business model" swing and the 2008 "business
model" swing is that 2008 was about "open core" and 2015 is about "open source as marketing".
Clearly nothing as blatent as open core will work, we learned that in the 2008
swing. So we need something different, I claim it is marketing. Witness the
rapid growth in marketing focused foundations.
For kicks, check the dates on a search for "open core and open source", yes, the peak is circa
2010, i.e. on the down-swing from point a to point b ("open core is evil, we must change this") and
2015 "let's not go there again". Here in the ASF we are already seeing the start of a backlash
against open source as a marketing tool. In another year or so it won't be just Jim posting about how things
have changed ;-)
Our role, as a foundation, is to sit patiently waiting for the pendulum to
settle. It will settle round about where the Apache Way tells us to sit
(community before code and a pragmatic license).
Ross
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Jagielski [mailto:j...@jagunet.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2015 12:59 PM
To: ComDev <dev@community.apache.org>
Subject: Passion and vigilance in open source
Some of you may know that I've started a Vlog series on Youtube around some
topics I find interesting, mostly around open source.
My latest is about the risks around open source today where the fun and passion
that used to exist around open source is drying up or being discounted. Since
Apache is one of the still remaining oasis of open source being all about
community and fun whilst still changing the world, I'd like to ask for some
thoughts from the membership about their concerns, etc... that I can fold into
the 2nd part of this mini-series.
If so, please contact me directly. I have set the Reply-To header accordingly.
Thx!
--
Rich Bowen - rbo...@rcbowen.com - @rbowen
http://apachecon.com/ - @apachecon
