Over the past two months there has been no absolute decline in number of Windows XP installs. (Source: Tableau data, which is sadly not public so I cannot link because it reveals more data from our users than we feel comfortable sharing)
Over the past two months there has been an absolute increase in the number of Windows 7 and Windows 10 installs. (Tableau) Thus, as a percentage it is decreasing. As a number of users, it isn't. It is important to be clear and precise, and I apologize that my blogpost failed in those respects. So, to recap: there are costs to supporting Windows XP and Windows Vista. The userbase is shrinking as a percentage of the overall Firefox userbase. There is a plan that will ensure support to April of 2018, two years after Chrome dropped support and a full decade after SP3 was released. In my opinion, this is an excellent and generous plan. I expect the Windows XP userbase to continue to shrink as a proportion of Firefox users, and to restart shrinking as an absolute value in the near term. Once again I am sorry for any confusion I may have caused. :chutten On Tue, Nov 1, 2016 at 11:08 PM, Peter Dolanjski <pdolanj...@mozilla.com> wrote: > Chutten is not as categoric as you are: >> >> It is also possible that we’ve seen some ex-Chrome users fleeing >> Google’s drop of support from earlier this year. >> > This is possible, but I'd still expect to see the biggest impact when > Chrome started including the scary persistent notification that the user > will no longer get updates. > > >> Deseasonalized numbers for just WinXP users are hard to come by, so >> this is fairly speculative. One thing that’s for certain is that the >> diminishing Windows XP userbase trend I had previously observed (and >> was counting on seeing continue) is no longer in evidence. > > > Chutten, if you have some other stats on this, I'd love to take a look. > The longitudinal data still shows the following trend: > > *Changes to **Daily Active User proportion of WinXP to total Windows > population from previous month:* > Week of Jan. 20th, 2016: -4.3% > Week of Feb. 20th, 2016: -2.5% > Week of Mar. 20th, 2016: -2.6% > Week of Apr. 20th, 2016: -3.2% > Week of May 20th, 2016: -1.3% > Week of June 20th, 2016: -3.3% > Week of July 20th, 2016: -2.3% > Week of Aug. 20th, 2016: -4.9% > Week of Sept. 20th, 2016: -1.1% > Week of Oct. 20th, 2016: -1.2% > > Sure, there were larger drops in the summer that seemed to have eased off > in Sept./Oct. but it's too early to tell if that's just some weirdness from > seasonality. > > Peter > > > > > > On Tue, Nov 1, 2016 at 9:56 PM, Mike Hommey <m...@glandium.org> wrote: > >> On Wed, Nov 02, 2016 at 09:28:40AM +0800, Peter Dolanjski wrote: >> > On 10/31/2016 3:54 PM, juar...@gmail.com wrote: >> > >> > > >> > > Discontinuing support for 10% of users sounds like shrinking 10% of >> > > customers, lay off 10% of employees, reduce 10% of funds for >> > > investments. >> > >> > >> > I can tell you that the evidence we have does not support the notion >> > that end of life (or the approach we are proposing) will actually >> > result in the attrition of those users. We examined the impact of >> > Chrome's end of life on Windows XP users. The majority of users >> > planned to stick with Chrome even without security updates. We also >> > saw almost zero evidence of Chrome's end of life causing an uptick in >> > Firefox usage or downloads among XP users. >> >> Chutten is not as categoric as you are: >> >> It is also possible that we’ve seen some ex-Chrome users fleeing >> Google’s drop of support from earlier this year. >> >> Deseasonalized numbers for just WinXP users are hard to come by, so >> this is fairly speculative. One thing that’s for certain is that the >> diminishing Windows XP userbase trend I had previously observed (and >> was counting on seeing continue) is no longer in evidence. >> >> https://chuttenblog.wordpress.com/2016/10/28/firefox-windows >> -xp-exit-plan/ >> >> Mike >> > > _______________________________________________ dev-platform mailing list dev-platform@lists.mozilla.org https://lists.mozilla.org/listinfo/dev-platform
