> I don't disagree with any of this. I probably made it seem irrational by
> my description and to be sure humans usually are quite irrational when it > comes to these kinds of tradeoffs, but there is also an element of common > sense that is very important. This problem is well known as the "marginal utility of money". It is clear that the correct answer depends on your income as the rational decision is maximizing utility, not money. E.g. Choice between: 1. $10 for sure 2. 1 in 20 of winning $500 Most people would chose 2 since the expected value is 2.5 times more than 1. ($10 is "nothing", $500 is "something") but if you multiply by 100,000 1. $1 million for sure 2. 1 in 20 of winning $50 million Most people would take 1, (19 chances in 20 of "losing" the million) but a billionaire would probably prefer 2 ;-) Jacques.
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