On Fri, May 14, 2010 at 4:34 PM, terry mcintyre <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't really play Bridge, but I've observed that the bidding process > reveals considerable information about what is in each player's hands. A MC > program for bridge would tailor distributions to incorporate this > information. Bridge players, I am told, are required to announce and stick to > a particular bidding strategy, so both their partner and their opponents can > glean the same information from the bidding history. > > In Tichu, there seem to be bids ( Tichu and Grand Tichu ) which also reveal > something about the bidder's hands.
Bidding actions are not different from any other actions when it comes to biasing distributions. At least the Math involved is the same. You need to consider each MC simulation with a weight that is the conditional probability that all the actions taken would have been taken, given this distribution (this is an application of Bayes' theorem). In order to make something like this work in practice, you sometimes need to find clever tricks to make sure you don't miss the distributions that have high weights. This is very important in poker, but I don't expect it to be a big deal in Tichu. So it looks like it would be very important to have a model that will quickly map a game situation to a probability distribution over the possible actions, which could then be used both as an MC policy and as a way to assign "likelihood" weights to the simulations. Álvaro. _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
