Don Dailey wrote:

>Your odds of finding a "winning move against a pro
>player" is different from finding one of the "best
>move(s)" in the position, ...

I agree. I was oversimplifying. It would be more
appropriate to say: Except, probably for the first
moves (as you point correctly, where the number of
playable moves is higher), the average ratio between
pro-level-playable-moves and legal-moves is *maybe*
1/100. There is sometimes only one (pro level)
playable move and sometimes two or three in, perhaps,
200 legal moves (decreasing while the board fills).

My numbers should only be taken as an orientation
of how small the probability is.

Of course, this does not pretend to be an argument
against MC. It is an answer to a post who related
this with infinite shift of Elo ratings against players
who "always loose". As I understood, Aloril,
used this to state that a random player does not
necessarily loose always, even against a pro.

I have been reading with much interest all that
has been posted on MC in the last months and it
sure is a promising way. I still have the doubt
if it could have some kind of ceiling in cases
where the more you approach the correct move
the more you loose, as in ladders. (see my post
"MC/UCT question" 6, December)


On the Chinese/Japanese question:

>This cuts both ways.  Wouldn't it be pretty silly if
>I was watching a Japanese game and continuously
>criticized certain moves as "wrong" based on Chinese
>standards?

I don't agree on that. If you are used to Chinese
and watch a Japanese game, you won't see any kind
of silly moves (assuming they are not silly to a
Japanese observer). The idea is: when there is
territory to be won, win it. That's the best you
can do by any ruleset. For strong players, the
ruleset does not make much difference (some minor
differences exist even between different Japanese
rulesets.) When there is no more territory to be
won, the game is finished, but that not easy to
understand for weak players. That's why the Chinese
ruleset indulgently ignores unnecessary moves. Moves
made when the game is finished don't win anything
and don't mean anything (neither by Chinese rules).
They are objective wrong moves. Imagine a chess
game where you give mate, then you capture the
king and, after that, you still move your pawns.
If a human does that, its offensive for the
opponent. If a computer does that, its just wrong.


Jacques.

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