Well, the way things look, Bermuda had better keep watching it… — Fred
Fred Street -- Minneapolis S/V Oceanis (1979 C&C Landfall 38) -- Bayfield, WI > On Sep 1, 2017, at 11:59 AM, Dreuge via CnC-List <cnc-list@cnc-list.com> > wrote: > > Hi > > This was just put out by a colleague at FSU: > > > > Hurricane IRMA has winds of 115 mph which makes it a Category 3 storm. It is > possible to became a Category 4 storm but, most likely, when closest to land, > it will be a Category 3 storm with winds in the 127 mph range. The track has > some uncertainly this far from land (it is currently in the mid Atlantic). > This weekend Irma with turn south as if it were headed toward the Antilles. > I would liken this to a "head-fake" in basketball. by mid week IRMA (perhaps > as a Category 4 storm will begin to turn WNW and then NW and then NNW as it > heads up the east coast, OFF SHORE. It will pass by 50-100 miles east of the > Bahamas toward the end of next week and 100 miles east of Miami, and > Florida next weekend. It will travel up the east coast before tuning to the > NE and back out to see half way up the coast. > > > Discussion: The European model has been closest to my analysis. They have > spanked the US models. The excuse of inadequate > U.S. computer power just isn't true. The forecast presented here is almost > certain to be as stated through mid week. There is high pressure in the > Atlantic. It is driving IRMA westward. There is a strong front approaching > and the front is forecast to erode the western end of the high pressure and > push IRMA to the north instead of west. If you have plans for the Bahamas > for early next week, it PRESENTLY looks good. A lot depends on just how > strong this approaching front will be when it gets to the coast! The next > few days will tell. If it takes the southerly route will most likely get > into the gulf, and follow closely to the path of Harvey without a landfall in > Texas. This is in the category of not likely, but still one of the top 3 > possible routes. Again, it all depends on the strength of the approaching > front. Hope it is strong. > > > > - > Paul E. > 1981 C&C 38 Landfall > S/V Johanna Rose > Fort Walton Beach, FL > > http://svjohannarose.blogspot.com/ <http://svjohannarose.blogspot.com/>
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