Hi This was just put out by a colleague at FSU:
Hurricane IRMA has winds of 115 mph which makes it a Category 3 storm. It is possible to became a Category 4 storm but, most likely, when closest to land, it will be a Category 3 storm with winds in the 127 mph range. The track has some uncertainly this far from land (it is currently in the mid Atlantic). This weekend Irma with turn south as if it were headed toward the Antilles. I would liken this to a "head-fake" in basketball. by mid week IRMA (perhaps as a Category 4 storm will begin to turn WNW and then NW and then NNW as it heads up the east coast, OFF SHORE. It will pass by 50-100 miles east of the Bahamas toward the end of next week and 100 miles east of Miami, and Florida next weekend. It will travel up the east coast before tuning to the NE and back out to see half way up the coast. Discussion: The European model has been closest to my analysis. They have spanked the US models. The excuse of inadequate U.S. computer power just isn't true. The forecast presented here is almost certain to be as stated through mid week. There is high pressure in the Atlantic. It is driving IRMA westward. There is a strong front approaching and the front is forecast to erode the western end of the high pressure and push IRMA to the north instead of west. If you have plans for the Bahamas for early next week, it PRESENTLY looks good. A lot depends on just how strong this approaching front will be when it gets to the coast! The next few days will tell. If it takes the southerly route will most likely get into the gulf, and follow closely to the path of Harvey without a landfall in Texas. This is in the category of not likely, but still one of the top 3 possible routes. Again, it all depends on the strength of the approaching front. Hope it is strong. - Paul E. 1981 C&C 38 Landfall S/V Johanna Rose Fort Walton Beach, FL http://svjohannarose.blogspot.com/
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