While this is an interesting discussion, we have certainly veered far off the topic of Cayuga Birds. It might be time to move this specific thread to a private discussion. Thanks.
On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:26 AM David Nicosia <daven102...@gmail.com> wrote: > > This analogy is not true. The atmosphere doesn't work this way. Greenhouse > gases are not a lid on the atmosphere. They absorb and emit infrared > radiation in all directions some back to the Earth. This keeps the Earth > 33C warmer than if the Earth was a blackbody radiator, i.e no atmosphere. > The sun gives us about 239 W/m2 of energy if you take geometry into > account. The blackbody radiation temperature associated with this is 255K > or -18C or 0F. By increasing greenhouse gases, the emission layer rises to > a higher altitude which is colder thus there is less emission. The earth > must warm up some to balance the reduced IR emission. A lid just increases > the pressure from steam in a boiling pot. That would make currents up and > down a lot stronger. But it is the increase in pressure that causes this. > Greenhouse gases don't increase atmospheric pressure at all. If you hold > all else equal, a doubling of our CO2 content from pre-industrial times > leads to about 1.2C of warming which is pretty benign and could even be > beneficial to many. The Earth has warmed almost 1C since the late 1800s > some of this before large scale fossil fuel burning. After a temporary cool > down between the 1940s and 70s, the Earth has warmed about .6C since the > late 70s. This in the grand scheme of things is very small considering that > 8000 years ago based on pollen samples the NH was likely 2-4C warmer than > present. This area was covered in a more southern type of forest similar to > Virginia. The spruce and fir zone was higher in our mountains and the tree > line was farther north in Canada. So I think our birds will be pretty > adaptable if the climate warms as predicted. They adapted before, why not > now? Our species composition would probably change as suggested by some > authors. > > The fires in the west, hurricanes and record cold in the Rockies recently > is just weather. Weather can be extreme at times. That has always been the > case. Back in the day we didn't have 24 hour news, media hype and social > media to notice as much. The bottom line, if the Earth continues to warm as > predicted it warms more at the poles vs the tropics. This weakens the jet > stream which would weaken storms. Storms derived their energy from the jet > stream and baroclinic instability. Baroclinic instability is stronger when > there is a stronger temperature contrast between the poles and tropics. If > global warming continues and the Arctic warms at a much faster rate as > predicted, storms will be weaker. Cold outbreaks will be less frequent. > Hope this helps. > > > > > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 1:07 PM Dave Nutter <nutter.d...@me.com> wrote: > >> Thank you to everyone who has helped address the issues of the NM migrant >> die-off, the surprising weather, and some effects of climate change. Here’s >> a very generalized view and analogy about weather, global warming, and >> climate change which I have found helpful: >> >> Sunlight heats the earth the most where it hits most directly and for the >> longest time during the day. That includes the tropics, or low latitudes, >> where midday sun is very direct, and where daytime is always about 12 >> hours. And it includes whichever hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and >> having summer where, as you increase in latitude going toward the polar >> regions, the hours of daylight increase to 24 although directness of the >> sun decreases. >> >> The average temperature of the earth has been staying fairly stable >> within a narrow range for years and years. A stable temperature means that >> as much heat has to leave the earth as was provided by the sun’s warmth. >> That heat is radiated back to outer space from the places which are not >> being heated up: wherever it’s nighttime, plus wherever the sun strikes at >> at too low an angle to effectively provide much warmth - in early morning, >> late afternoon and higher latitudes. >> >> Wind, at its most basic, is caused by temperature changes at the earth’s >> surface which warm or cool the air, changing the air’s density and >> pressure. Denser air falls, and the air moves to even out the pressure. And >> the air redistributes heat as it moves. On a very large scale, that heat >> redistribution takes heat from the warmer places to the colder places, but >> the wind has many eddies, so that what happens locally or regionally may be >> different. >> >> [There are also huge effects from water which I’m ignoring here: Part of >> the earth’s surface, the ocean, moves and transfers a great deal of heat >> energy in major currents such as the Gulf Stream. Ice & snow reflect >> sunlight back into space. Clouds also act as reflectors on top but as >> insulating blankets below. Water absorbs heat as it evaporates or melts but >> gives off heat as it condenses or freezes.] >> >> >> My analogous situation is a pot of hot water on a stove such that the lid >> is off, the water has been brought to a boil, so it is thoroughly warmed, >> and the flame has been reduced enough that the water is no longer boiling, >> but it’s in a steady state where there are steam bubbles forming on the >> bottom which disappear before reaching the surface. >> >> The source of heat is the flame below, analogous to the sun. The heat, >> via the water, eventually goes into the room, our equivalent of outer >> space. If you look down at the water you should be able to see places on >> the surface where there are upwellings of warmer water rising. The water >> doesn’t rise everywhere at once, and the water is descending in between >> where it is rising. The pot itself is like the surface of the earth, warmer >> right over the flame (where sunlight is direct and prolonged) and cooler at >> the rim (everywhere else). The movements of water in the pot are like the >> weather on earth. The heat comes in, it gets moved around by the weather in >> a general pattern with lots of smaller scale differences, and the heat >> leaves, while the overall temperature remains fairly even. >> >> Now, suppose that, without changing the low flame, you partially cover >> the pot with a lid. It’s now a bit more difficult for the heat to escape, >> so the water temperature rises to a new stable level, and you may even get >> the water to boil again without increasing the flame. Also those >> convection currents in the water get stronger - both the hot currents going >> one direction and cooler currents going the other direction. >> >> The lid partially covering the pot is the equivalent of adding greenhouse >> gases to our atmosphere. The result is a warmer average temperature, and >> also stronger weather patterns, both warm winds and cold winds, and >> stronger storms (with lots of water evaporating, condensing, freezing & >> melting) helping to redistribute heat as well. What happens at any >> particular location on earth is apt to be different from previous patterns, >> more extreme, more violent, and more variable. We can’t rely as much on our >> reassuring decades of weather records (the previous climate for any >> location) for what to expect anymore, because we have changed the >> atmosphere so that the system is more energetic. >> >> As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate >> paragraphs, and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out >> west, and as an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post: >> >> An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me >> is a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of >> August in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not >> depict. >> >> A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August >> and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including >> today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition >> Sibley guide did not depict. >> >> - - Dave Nutter >> >> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne <john.ci...@cornell.edu> >> wrote: >> >> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming. >> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. >> >> >> >> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I >> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the >> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing >> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air >> to the south, mainly over continents. Export of air from the north makes >> space for import of air from the south, so to speak. For now, at least, >> the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America. >> >> >> >> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences >> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation. >> >> >> >> >> >> *From: *<bounce-124948208-77975...@list.cornell.edu> on behalf of "Kevin >> J. McGowan" <k...@cornell.edu> >> *Reply-To: *"Kevin J. McGowan" <k...@cornell.edu> >> *Date: *Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM >> *To: *david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com>, Peter Saracino < >> petersarac...@gmail.com>, Jody Enck <jodye...@gmail.com> >> *Cc: *"atvaw...@gmail.com" <atvaw...@gmail.com>, CAYUGABIRDS-L < >> cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> >> *Subject: *RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality >> >> >> >> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “ >> >> >> >> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe >> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, >> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange >> changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in >> the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska >> warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter >> temperatures lower than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right. >> >> >> >> Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means >> that the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be >> disrupted. Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally >> consistent with a global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the >> rockies while the north pole melts also points to something freakishly >> abnormal happening, totally consistent with global warming. >> >> >> >> Kevin >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu < >> bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu> *On Behalf Of *david nicosia >> *Sent:* Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM >> *To:* Peter Saracino <petersarac...@gmail.com>; Jody Enck < >> jodye...@gmail.com> >> *Cc:* atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L <cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> >> *Subject:* Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality >> >> >> >> The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event >> ranks number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred >> during fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature >> >> occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early >> snows that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds >> over 50 mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic >> high pressure that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which >> flows downslope into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading >> to high winds and VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires. So >> in a sense it is the brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of >> the conditions that caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with >> temperatures in the 80, 90s and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in >> many areas in the Rockies with early snows was too much for many birds to >> handle causing the high mortality rates. I have read that people are >> blaming climate change on this. I don't see it because it is the intense >> cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and probably had a negative >> effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with >> global warming. >> >> >> >> >> >> On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck < >> jodye...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article. Additional >> information has been forthcoming recently. Hypotheses include movements >> related to smoky conditions in some states, coupled with those weird >> temperature swings recorded last week (90 to 100 F one day and below >> freezing, with snow, the next day). Seems less likely to be a nefarious >> even (e.g., poisoning) than something more likely caused by challenging >> environmental factors. >> >> >> >> I hope more information comes out soon. >> >> >> >> Jody W. Enck, PhD >> >> Conservation Social Scientist, and >> >> Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network >> >> 607-379-5940 >> >> >> >> >> >> On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino <petersarac...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >> >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom <atvaw...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico. I >> read a CNN report. Is there any new information on the cause? They’re >> talking hundreds of thousands, even millions. >> >> Tom V >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> >> -- >> >> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME >> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES >> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm >> >> ARCHIVES: >> 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html >> 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds >> 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html >> >> Please submit your observations to eBird: >> http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ >> >> -- >> >> -- >> >> *Cayugabirds-L List Info:* >> >> Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME> >> >> Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES> >> >> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >> <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> >> >> *Archives:* >> >> The Mail Archive >> 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*Cayugabirds-L List Info:* >> >> Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME> >> >> Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES> >> >> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >> <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> >> >> *Archives:* >> >> The Mail Archive >> <http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html> >> >> Surfbirds <http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds> >> >> BirdingOnThe.Net <http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html> >> >> *Please submit your observations to eBird >> <http://ebird.org/content/ebird/>!* >> >> -- >> >> -- >> >> *Cayugabirds-L List Info:* >> >> Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME> >> >> Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES> >> >> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >> <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> >> >> *Archives:* >> 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*Cayugabirds-L List Info:* >> Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME> >> Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES> >> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >> <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> >> *Archives:* >> The Mail Archive >> <http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html> >> Surfbirds <http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds> >> BirdingOnThe.Net <http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html> >> *Please submit your observations to eBird >> <http://ebird.org/content/ebird/>!* >> -- >> > -- > *Cayugabirds-L List Info:* > Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME> > Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES> > Subscribe, Configuration and Leave > <http://www.northeastbirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> > *Archives:* > The Mail Archive > <http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html> > Surfbirds <http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds> > BirdingOnThe.Net <http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html> > *Please submit your observations to eBird > <http://ebird.org/content/ebird/>!* > -- > -- Jeff Gerbracht Cornell Lab of Ornithology -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
