Nice Congrats 73. Rick Rick Hiller W5RH *e-mail: rickhille...@gmail.com <rickhille...@gmail.com>* *Cell/VM/Text: 832-474-3713* *Physical: 9031 Troulon Drive* * Houston, TX 77036*
On Sat, Nov 2, 2024 at 9:07 PM Michael Ewer via BVARC <bvarc@bvarc.org> wrote: > Band is generous now. Had a QSO (confirmed) with YT3PL, 5937 miles away in > Serbia recently, and all that with the Hustler vertical on my roof. > > Greetings, > > Mike K2MPP > > > On Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 05:36:30 PM CDT, Rick Hiller via BVARC < > bvarc@bvarc.org> wrote: > > > Forwarded from K2TNO of TDXS.....by W5RH > ================================================ > From: *Frank W3LPL* <donov...@starpower.net> > Date: Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 2:46 AM > *Subject: [PVRC] W3LPL HF and 6 Meter Propagation Forecast for Friday > through Sunday November 1-3* > To: PVRC <p...@mailman.qth.net> > > > Some of the best HF and 6 meter F2 propagation of Solar Cycle 24 is likely > to continue for the next week > > > > Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly > normal through at least late Sunday > > > > Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through > at least late Sunday. > > ______________________________________ > > > > This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online > sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a > week (M-F) in *The Daily DX*. > > All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time. > > > > More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 > meter F2 propagation is likely through this weekend and continuing > through next week and again during late November if solar flux values > persist well above 200 for several days. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 > Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is > possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More > northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional > above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent > additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is > extremely unlikely until December. > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-45-day-ap-and-f107cm-flux-forecast > > > > The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is > likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. > > > www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php > > > > SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 210 and is > likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. > > www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png > > > > The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, two growing > medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two decaying > medium active regions. There are 77 sunspots on the visible disk with a > total sunspot area is 2320 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the > surface area of the Earth). > > www.solarham.com/regions.htm > > > > Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through Sunday. > > > > Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least late > Sunday. > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes > > > > Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor > blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth > through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an > hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit > side of the Earth through Sunday. > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts > > > The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and > associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to end during Friday. > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm > > > 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South > Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long > distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to > moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle > F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset. > > > > 40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and > south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short > path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is > likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. > > > 30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is > likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance > propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of > local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation. > > 20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is > likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 > km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded > during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of > low angle F2 propagation. > > > 17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions > is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path > propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z > to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. > > > > 12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions > is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path > propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z > to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. > > > > There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from > the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern > Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about > 1400-1700Z during early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation > (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from > about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF > oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the > south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about > 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple > into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude > F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z > during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then > degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent > article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude > sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: > > http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf > > Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the > interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial *but unpredictable* role > in triggering *all* geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate > geomagnetic > > storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a > southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas > or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a > geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer > duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and > unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) > with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of > several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME > and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more. > > > > Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is > 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd. Sunrise is about two > hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the > refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is > about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region. > > > > The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1800Z, > 2000Z and 2200Z at > > > www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php > > SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at > www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index > > > Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at > > www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices > > > N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at > > www.hamqsl.com/solar.html > > > > KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated > every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old > at > > https://prop.kc2g.com > > Perhaps the most useful HF propagation related pages for DXers can be > found at > > http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com > > Attachments area > Preview YouTube video An X-flare Strikes Again with a Side of Solar > Storming | Solar Storm Forecast 24 October 2024 > > <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytohmbkYrnQ&t=6s&authuser=0> > > -- > > ________________________________________________ > Brazos Valley Amateur Radio Club > > BVARC mailing list > BVARC@bvarc.org > http://mail.bvarc.org/mailman/listinfo/bvarc_bvarc.org > Publicly available archives are available here: > https://www.mail-archive.com/bvarc@bvarc.org/ > ________________________________________________ > Brazos Valley Amateur Radio Club > > BVARC mailing list > BVARC@bvarc.org > http://mail.bvarc.org/mailman/listinfo/bvarc_bvarc.org > Publicly available archives are available here: > https://www.mail-archive.com/bvarc@bvarc.org/ >
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