Forwarded from K2TNO of TDXS.....by W5RH ================================================ From: Frank W3LPL <donov...@starpower.net> Date: Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 2:46 AM *Subject: [PVRC] W3LPL HF and 6 Meter Propagation Forecast for Friday through Sunday November 1-3* To: PVRC <p...@mailman.qth.net>
Some of the best HF and 6 meter F2 propagation of Solar Cycle 24 is likely to continue for the next week Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least late Sunday Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least late Sunday. ______________________________________ This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in *The Daily DX*. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time. More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through this weekend and continuing through next week and again during late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December. www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-45-day-ap-and-f107cm-flux-forecast The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 210 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two decaying medium active regions. There are 77 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2320 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth). www.solarham.com/regions.htm Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through Sunday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least late Sunday. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to end during Friday. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation. 20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation. 17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial *but unpredictable* role in triggering *all* geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more. Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z at www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com Perhaps the most useful HF propagation related pages for DXers can be found at http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com Attachments area Preview YouTube video An X-flare Strikes Again with a Side of Solar Storming | Solar Storm Forecast 24 October 2024 <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytohmbkYrnQ&t=6s&authuser=0> --
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