Dan M <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> For the same reason that, although I know that playing the roulette wheel is
> a losing proposition, I cannot predict who will go to Vegas.
Bad analogy. Better analogy would be for you to invest in a casino, which
expects to make money on roulette, provided they don't go broke, which
they insure by limiting the size of the bets they will accept relative to their
capital.
Which still does not answer the question. It is relatively basic probability and
statistics to model how much money to risk given the expected return and risk
of the investment. Since you believe you have a superior understanding of
those principles to the majority of the market participants, you should easily
be able to make a lot of money. Why do you insist on risking other people's
money instead of your own?
> Again, please please tell me what your background is
It is sufficient to understand any argument you make that is reasonable for
an email list such as this. The problem is not that I don't understand you, it
is that you are trying to persuade me that you and people like you know
better how to spend other people's money, even though you will not risk
your own money in a similar environment, and I'm not buying it.
> Whatever you think, Buffet,
> Paulson, and Bernoski, Greenspan are not all idiots.
Even the smartest people make mistakes (Bernoski? :-) And predicting
the future of an extraordinarily complex system is difficult, even for
geniuses. Bernanke, Paulson, and Greenspan all failed to predict the housing
bubble and mortgage crisis. In fact, they all predicted the opposite. Regardless
of their intelligence, their track record is horrible.
> Yet, (with the
> possible exception of Buffet), the market is efficient enough so they cannot
> predict it.
Buffett is the only one of the 4 who primarily risks his own money. Which,
incidentally, he got essentially a 10% perpetuity PLUS warrants at a favorable
price for his $5B investment in Goldman. How much you want to bet that
the government does do anywhere near as well with other people's money?
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