> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Nick Arnett
> Sent: Friday, August 04, 2006 1:33 PM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: RFK Jr. interview
> 
> 
> But, your specific statement that I questioned was that everyone knew that
> > Iraq had no WMD
> 
> 
> Bullshit again.  I never said that everyone knew Iraq had no WMDs.

Well, I didn't get your point quite right, so I'll admit that.  I was
focusing on the disagreement over whether a strong consensus among the
Western intelligence agencies about the existence of WMD in Iraq existed.
You argued, since the US Intelligence Analysis we all have been referring to
concluded that there were not WMD, no such consensus existed.  If that were
true, it would be sufficient to falsify both my assertion and JDG's
assertion. But, it is not true, at least if one takes the plain sense of the
text.

The point of that statement is that the pre-war assessment of the existence
of WMD is in dispute.  I am not arguing that there was a consensus on an
imminent danger.  I don't believe such a consensus existed.  Remember, I
stated that Bush took the + 3 sigma point of the consensus probability
distribution of risk as the most likely point.  That's not saying that Bush
gave a good representation.

Dan M. 


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