--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Nick Arnett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > I find your reaction to be astonishing. Indeed, I suspect it is > > at the heart of our inability to communicate. The quote you > > have cited from George Tenet said "the NIE did not say that > > there was an imminent threat." You, however, have interpreted > > this statement as saying "the NIE said that the threat from Iraq > > was *not imminent.*" > > More bullshit (can you tell I'm feeling very impatient?).
Impatience does not help you communicate. > It said their judgment was that there was a low probability of > Iraq using WMDs against the United States if it succeeded in > building them. I don't find the words "low probability" anywhere in the NIE. Quote: "We have low confidence in our ability to assess when Saddam would use WMD." In other words, they are warning the policy-makers that they do not have a firm judgement on this matter. It appears that either because Saddam Hussein is unpredictable, or because of a lack of inside intelligence of Iraqi doctrines, that they do not have a firm conclusion. Quote: "He probably would use [chemical and biological weapons] when he perceved he had irretrieveably lost control of the military and security situation, but we are unlikely to know when Saddam Hussein reaches that point." Quote: "Iraq would probably attempt clandestine attacks against the US homeland if Baghdad feared an attack would threaten the survival of the regime were imminent or unvaoidable.... Such attacks - more likely with biological than chemical agents - probably would be carried out by special forces agents or intelligence operatives." > The point is that the administration was going around saying, We > have to attack Iraq because our intelligence shows that they have > WMDs and they pose > an imminent, mortal threat to the United States, ready to send > UAVs here loaded with weaponized biological and nuclear agents and > just might have > nukes, we can't be sure. > > Not one word of that was justified by the actual intelligence > report. This is simply not true. The existence of Iraq's stockpiles of WMD are consistently supported throughout the NIE. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
