* Robert J. Chassell ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
> * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the
> growth rate that Republican administrations achieved historically?
> Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or
> whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as
> well as they did.
>
> * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the
> growth rate that Democratic administrations achieved historically?
> Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or
> whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as
> well as they did.
Dan Minette responded by saying that from 1920 to 2000, if we exclude
the first two years of a party having the presidency, in terms of per
capita GDP:
Republicans: approx $16,500
Actual: $36,000
Democrats: $127,000
The difference is 770% between Republicans and Democrats. This tells
us, roughly speaking, the difference between Republicans and Democrats
long term `traditions' or `schools of thought' regarding economic
management.
The difference is huge.
Earlier I said that a difference of less than 10% from the current
(i.e., per capta median income under Republicans of $32,400 and under
Democrats of $39,600; i.e., a nearly 20% difference between
Republicans and Democrats) would be suggestive evidence that JDG's
hypothesis is correct.
His hypothesis is
... the political party with the Presidency would probably be
somewhere just above sunspot activity ...
Clearly, it is wrong. Even with a difference of 50% from the current
(i.e., per capta median income under Republicans of $18,000 and under
Democrats of $54,000), JDG's hypothesis is wrong.
Put another way, Dan is right when he suggests that the economic
policy of an administration is meaningful.
Also, this result negates Maru Dubshinki's issue, which that
Because the economy would run in cycles irregardless of which
party is in power, and voters would react accordingly ...
Presumably, over an 80 year time period, economic cycles would get out
of sync with political cycles, which come every four years *exactly*.
So Dubshinki's notion bites the dust, too.
Erik Reuter's point does come into play. But I am puzzled by his
restatement of it on 4 May 2005:
Unfortunately, the overall market is only growing at 6% a year and
now that the company has monopolized the market and implemented
most of the cost savings and efficiency improvements possible,
earnings only grow at 6% a year. The investors who extrapolated
the 30% per year forward take a bath. Doh!
We are not talking about filling up a market niche, we are talking
about creating many new niches. Or do you think that the economy
really is zero sum, and that it is impossible to increase it by much?
Erik, are you suggesting that median per capta income cannot ever grow
to be 3.5 times higher than it is now? That an income of rich, but
not terribly rich people is simply out of reach of the majority?
If so, what limits the economy?
(It cannot be energy, since I know from personal experience that
Democrats have advocated alternatives for 30 years. It cannot be
traffic jams, since I also know from personal experience that
Democrats have advocated alternatives for 30 years.
(Energy impacts manufacturing, housing size, commute distance, and all
that, so none of those can be limits.)
JDG and I agreed that this is `painting with an awfully broad brush'.
But as I said, the exercise does have the advantage of looking over
generations of time, so short term variations are removed.
You do not have to wonder whether income could be $127,000 per person.
You could simply wonder whether is could be $60,000 per person rather
than the $36,000 per person as it is in actuality.
So my next question is which elements of the long term `traditions' or
`schools of thought' regarding economic management did the Republicans
got wrong and which did the Democrats got right?
--
Robert J. Chassell
[EMAIL PROTECTED] GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8
http://www.rattlesnake.com http://www.teak.cc
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