* Robert J. Chassell ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote: > * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the > growth rate that Republican administrations achieved historically? > Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or > whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as > well as they did. > > * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the > growth rate that Democratic administrations achieved historically? > Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or > whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as > well as they did.
This sort of extrapolation is likely to be more dangerous than helpful, because it generates a big number to give one a false sense of security greater than justified from the data. The goal of any such analysis is likely to be to formulate a future policy. But the data can support any number of "explanations" which could lead to dramatically different policies. For example, the data could equally well "explain" that there is an economic "sweet spot" that the US has historically averaged close to over the past 70 years, but the average was slightly on the conservative side (oscillating back and forth around a bias point slightly on the conservative side of the sweet spot). Therefore, whenever Democrats get power they will move the US closer to the sweet spot, thus improving economic growth, and the Republicans move the country away from the sweet spot. But if the Democrats had been in power the whole 70 years, we likely would have far overshot the sweet-spot on the liberal side and thus had much slower growth. The data cannot distinguish between that, and "the Democrats policies will consistently result in stronger growth if applied continually". Or any other of a large number of similar "explanations". So the conclusion you are looking for from such an ambitious extrapolation will be likely to lead to a false sense of security. -- Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
