On 5/2/05, Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > * Robert J. Chassell ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote: > > * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the > > growth rate that Republican administrations achieved historically? > > Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or > > whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as > > well as they did. > > > > * What would be the current GDP and median per capta US at the > > growth rate that Democratic administrations achieved historically? > > Presume they were the only administration in power since 1948 (or > > whatever is the base year) and that they succeeded economically as > > well as they did. > > This sort of extrapolation is likely to be more dangerous than helpful, > because it generates a big number to give one a false sense of security > greater than justified from the data. > > The goal of any such analysis is likely to be to formulate a future > policy. But the data can support any number of "explanations" which > could lead to dramatically different policies. > > For example, the data could equally well "explain" that there is an > economic "sweet spot" that the US has historically averaged close to > over the past 70 years, but the average was slightly on the conservative > side (oscillating back and forth around a bias point slightly on the > conservative side of the sweet spot). Therefore, whenever Democrats get > power they will move the US closer to the sweet spot, thus improving > economic growth, and the Republicans move the country away from the > sweet spot. But if the Democrats had been in power the whole 70 years, > we likely would have far overshot the sweet-spot on the liberal side and > thus had much slower growth. > > The data cannot distinguish between that, and "the Democrats policies > will consistently result in stronger growth if applied continually". Or > any other of a large number of similar "explanations". So the conclusion > you are looking for from such an ambitious extrapolation will be likely > to lead to a false sense of security.
Both an interesting question and response. I will have to think about it. -- Gary Denton Easter Lemming Blogs http://elemming.blogspot.com http://elemming2.blogspot.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
