On Wed, Aug 11, 2004 at 12:59:54PM -0500, Dan Minette wrote:

> Playing with numbers I took the accumulated balance of trade imbalance
> in goods and services since 1960 and divided it by the GDP.  This is
> akin to dividing the total household debt by the household income.
> When we have a balance of trade deficit, money flows out to make up
> the differences between goods sold and bought.

I think it is more accurate to say that certificates (bonds, stock
certificates, IOU's, etc) flow out, not money. The trade deficit is
financed by foreign investment in the US -- most recently by countries
like Japan and China buying US bonds, and before that by foreigners
buying US equities.

> At what point does this become disturbing?  Is it when its 100% of
> GDP, 200%? never?  If never, why?

Basically, we are selling our assets for current consumption. Foreigners
own a certain percentage of US assets at any given time, and that
perecentage has been going up for quite a while. I vaguely remember
Warren Buffett writing an interesting comment about this some time ago
(if you are interested, I can try to dig it up).

So, a better way to ask your question might be, at what percentage
of foreign ownership of US assets does a problem arise? At 100%,
then we would all be working for foreigners to earn our room and
board. Would that be a problem? Many people would consider it one. So,
at what percentage less than 100% do we cross over from acceptable to
unacceptable?


-- 
Erik Reuter   http://www.erikreuter.net/
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