--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > In a word, no. He appears to believe that standing > tough will always win > the day. By talking about regime change, and the > axis of evil he has given > at least an indication that he is interested in > taking steps to overthrow > the North Korean government even if they more or > less keep their word on > nuclear arms. > That is clearly contrary to the Chinese self > interest. They do not want a > US ally on their border.
> Dan M. I agree with a lot of what you said Dan, but I don't think this is what the Administration is thinking here. They seem, so far as I can tell, to believe that North Korea creates a nuclear crisis whenever they need something from the rest of the world - so reacting as if were a crisis gives them exactly what they want. In essence the Administration appears to be engaged in a battle of risk tolerance with China. Neither country wants a nuclear-armed North Korea. Neither wants to do what is necessary to prevent this (a pre-emptive strike by the US or cutting off all food and economic aid on the part of China) for very good reasons (100,000+ South Koreans dead if the US acts, the probable collapse of North Korea into anarchy if China does). The more that the US does in the Korean peninsula, the more it decreases the incentive that China act - and vice versa, of course. Both sides, from what I can tell, realize this. In essence they seem to be playing chicken - and the single greatest advantage of the American government in this situation appears to be the remarkable fact that President Bush apparently does not bluff. I'm not terribly thrilled with this as a policy. OTOH, it does seem to be the only one I can think of that _might_ work. I can't think of any other way to force China's hand - can you? ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
