[email protected] wrote:
The "Silent Upgrade" is what is currently driving the traffic shift
toward IPv6 on a lot of networks. Most customers do not care or know
what protocol is delivering their bits, they just want them to arrive.
Essentially, IPv6 is an optimization, not a replacement.
Eventually market forces, especially in places with shortages of IPv4
addresses and CGnat will eventually get operators to charge extra for
access to IPv4, because of the extra cost of CGnat and CALEA logging
costs. DOCSYS 3+ require IPv6 as well as 4G+ mobile networks, which
will also push more traffic toward IPv6. These factors also tend to
make IPv6 faster for these users due to lack of CGnat, which will
further drive more content providers to provide native IPv6 for speed
reasons.
To the extent that the optimization IPv6 brings these organizations
capex and opex reduction to make IPv4+IPv6 less expensive overall than
IPv4 only, that should be when IPv4 enters legacy mode.
I think we will eventually get to an IPv6 dominant network, but I am
sure also it will not happen until well after my retirement.
I think another decade is a reasonable guess, but who knows.
And since it is a fair and widely held assumption that we have at least
5-15 years of IPv4 prime time, trying to improve our experience using it
for that duration seems to me to be a worthy goal.
Joe
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