Of course, if their were any serious possibility of IPv6 exhaustion, IETF
might change the rules for the next /3, or maybe one of the later /3's.
For example, instead of a /64 assigned and /64 local part, they might opt
to make the local part smaller, resulting in many many more addresses.
Each bit slid doubles the number of addresses available in each /3.
However, I doubt that I will ever see anything close to IPv6 exhaustion in
my lifetime. The number is just too big.
Albert Erdmann
Network Administrator
Paradise On Line Inc.
On Sat, 4 Sep 2021, Owen DeLong via ARIN-PPML wrote:
" Just curious Mike... Does this opinion on your part extend also to IPv6?"
Of course not. IPv6 is not a scarce resource and there is no market for it
to compete with the free pool.
IPv6 isn't scarce -today-. If we look out 25 years it may become so.
So then what?
One of two things needs to occur for this statement to work:
1. IPv6 allocation policies need to radically change
or 2. You have to be really bad at math.
So far, I believe 2 RIRs have received their second /12s from the first /3,
so the total IPv6 distribution so far stands at 7 /12s + some earlier more
specific RIR allocations from IANA which, IIRC, taken together add up to less
than a /12, so let’s call it 8 /12s.
THat’s lasted us 20+ years of IPv6 already. RIRs seem to be burning through
roughly 1 /12 (total) every 5 years or so at current allocation rates. Let’s
take that and assume that the IPv6 allocation rate will double every 5 years
for the next 25 (very unlikely, but it’s OK.).
So we’re at 8 /12s now, and by 2026, we’d be at 10 /12s issued. To compute 2031,
we double to 4 /12s issued bringing the total to 14. By 2036, add 8 more for
a total of 22 and 2041 adds 16 bringing the total to 38. Finally at the 25
year mark, we’ll add another 32 bringing the total to 70 /12s issued.
The initial /3 IETF has put into play as IPv6 GUA contains a total of 512 /12s,
so in 25 years, even at the outlandish growth rate I posit above, we’ll still
be just slightly past 10% of the first 1/8th of the total address space
allocated.
In short, absent some radical change in how addresses are used and allocated,
it is unlikely that:
1. Anyone alive will survive to see IPv6 scarcity
2. Address scarcity will be the first fatal scaling limit seen
in IPv6.
This seems to be what Lu Heng and others want, and strange as it may sound
coming from me, nobody has ever persuaded me that this would actually be a
Bad Idea... and I gather that you also would tend to view this idea favorably.
I don’t think that’s a fair characterization at all.
Owen
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