On Sep 30, 2014, at 10:45 AM, Matthew Kaufman <[email protected]> wrote:
> I've been watching Geoff's ARIN runout prediction slip out into the future, > and reading here about increased review leading to slower processing... Is > runout being delayed just because legitimate applications for space are > queuing up? > > Can we get a report on historical and current application queue depth from > staff? Matthew - Queue lengths for IPv4 assignment and allocations did lengthen slightly when we instituted team review (per Phase 1 of the countdown plan which was reached in April), but they've been steady since and are not what is driving Geoff's runout numbers to slip... Geoff's outlook is based on recent allocation history (he does a least squares linear best fit on this data), which means that his estimate will move up after a very large allocation (such as was made in this past April) and then will begin to slide out if the following months do not maintain that predicted higher allocation rate. The second graph on this page shows the monthly allocation from the free pool in terms of /24 equivalents; the April allocation is rather pronounced - <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html> Geoff's best fit for ARIN Address Allocation Rate can be seen in the graph here - <http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/fig27i.png> Note how it spiked after that allocation, but has been slowing down since... (it's a little hard to read because of the 5 year scale, but the newest non-zero data on the far right side is the important part.) If we should make another large assignment or allocation, then Geoff's estimates will pull in according; Geoff has noted on several occasions that towards the end of the free pool, it becomes fairly difficult to have a reliable prediction since it becomes more about the timing of a rather small number of discrete events (e.g. the very large allocations) than the calculated run rate. If you need anything additional, please let me know... (Also, I've cc'd the esteemed Geoff Huston on this email; it's only fair in any lengthly discussion of his great efforts. :-) ) Thanks! /John John Curran President and CEO ARIN _______________________________________________ PPML You are receiving this message because you are subscribed to the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List ([email protected]). Unsubscribe or manage your mailing list subscription at: http://lists.arin.net/mailman/listinfo/arin-ppml Please contact [email protected] if you experience any issues.
